I'm sitting in the airport bored right now, so I started watching some old NBA highlights and a wave of nostalgia hit me. I couldn't stop thinking about how much I liked basketball back then. The league was just more fun the the Heatles were together. Plain and simple. I didn’t start seriously following the sport until around 10 years ago, so there’s a lot I didn’t experience. But I miss the days when LeBron was in Miami. The league was just better. I reminisce fondly, and I'm sure a lot of you guys do too.
Now, for a trip down memory lane.
What I miss the most about the Heatles era was the unique storyline that every season seemed to have. It felt like each team was competing against each other rather than everyone competing against the Warriors or Cavs. It wasn't one big arms race to take down the top- it was a fight to get to the top. Each season had something different in store. Sometimes it really is about the journey I guess.
Yet I digress. Some crazy shit happened in this time period that we may never see again. To kick it off, we had The Decision. One of the worst PR moves in the history of professional sports besides Donald Sterling ramming his head up his ass repeatedly. The jersey burnings, the Gilbert letter, dearing down the poster. It was a sight to see. Sorry KD, but LeBron did it better.
The Heat instantly became the most hated team in the NBA. I hated them. I bet you did too. And that’s great. Because they embraced that villain role. It was fun to hate the Heat. That’s just what you did. In my opinion, it made the league that much more exciting. Warriors hate is alright, but none of them other than Draymond can really play that villain role. Wouldn’t that be awesome?
Instead, we get an overly dominant dynasty led by baby-faced assassain Steph Curry. I'm sorry, but the guy is just not meant to be a villain. Always the underdog, he's vividly remembered for Davidson's Cinderella run back in '08 or whenever. He's too nice for me to hate in the same way I hated LeBron in Miami.
As for KD, this is where vitriol for him fades into a grey area. It's popular to hate him after leaving OKC. Speaking as a Suns fan, I don't hate him like thunder fans do. It's not an enemy kind of hate. It's more of a feeling of disappointment and disgust. He tipped the scales too far in the league. Simply put, I'm just sad about his choice.
Draymond is a popular candidate to hate. His loud-mouthed, energetic, and naturally moving style of play is polarizing. However, it's just not the same. Draymond is a great player, a Swiss Army knife on the court. At the end of the day though, he doesn't lead the team to victory. That's Steph and KD. With that in mind, I just can't hate Draymond in the same way that one would hate Steph, LeBron, Kobe, etc. He's not enough of an independent star to be the face of a team and carry them to victory.
October 2011. The Heat arrived, ready to win. However, Derrick Rose stole the show in 2011, winning the MVP and leading the Bulls to the one seed. Meanwhile out west, it was more of the same with San Antonio and the Lakers winning the top two seeds. The regular season was all Heat in terms of scrutiny and coverage. You might also remember this season for the trades. The Jazz dealt Deron Williams to the Nets shortly after he ran Jerry Sloan out of town. Also, the Knicks gutted their team landed Carmelo Anthony in a blockbuster deal which saw the Nuggets become Knicks lite for a few years.
The playoffs got a little spicy. Memphis knocked off a banged-up San Antonio in six to start the postseason off. Questions abounded about the Spurs demise. Hilarious in hindsight, I know. This blew the west wide open. The Thunder made quick work of Memphis and clinched their spot in the WCF. The Mavericks, fresh off a scare against Portland, sweeps defending champion Los Angeles and starts them down a tailspin. Dirk ascends into one of the all time greats with clutch performance after clutch performance, beating a young and promising OKC in 5. Meanwhile, LeBron and co. run through the east, including that same Bulls team who beat them out for the top seed. Miami looked unstoppable. The were heavily favored against the Mavs and rightfully so. On paper, the Heat were overwhelmingly talented. However, Dallas did not back down. After falling down 2-1, they stormed back behind Dirk’s otherworldly scoring and upset Miami. LeBron was crucified after this loss for being a choker. He did shrink on the biggest stage, probably the most profound black eye on his legacy. The Mavericks got sweet, sweet revenge for 2006 and Dirk his ring. This was one of the best title runs of all time and a great series to watch as a fan and an outsider.
Unfortunately, the joy was simply a distraction for the upcoming labor dispute. There was a real possibility that there wasn’t going to be a next season. Wouldn’t that have sucked? Anyways, the league barely got the deal done in time. They had to cancel six weeks, pushing the start back to Christmas Day. You might remember the offseason for the Chris Paul saga. The league denied a trade sending Chris Paul to the Lakers citing “basketball reasons.” Instead, he got dealt to the Clippers. As a Suns fan, this was hilarious. Well, until next year. But anyways, this was crazy at the time and still is.
The shortened regular season began with all eyes on the Heat once again. This year, LeBron won MVP again and led the Heat to the second seed behind the Bulls. The Celtics and Pacers both quietly put up great seasons in the shadows of Miami and Chicago. And who could forget Linsanity? Jeremy Lin exploded, stealing the spotlight from Carmelo which was a big no-no. He salvaged their season in Melo’s absence, but the magic eventually wore off. Mike D’Antoni resigned mid-season after feuding with Melo. Across the Mississippi, the new-look Clippers are fun to watch but still a flawed team. San Antonio continued to dominate with OKC not far behind. Sadly, Brandon Roy had to bring his career to a close. We missed out on a good one. The Mavericks, fresh off of their magical title run, let Tyson Chandler walk, beginning the end of their perennial top four seed.
Playoff time in 2012 was thrilling as an outsider (again). For the involved fans, emotions ranged from ecstasy to crippling depression. For the second year in a row, an eight seed knocked off a one when Philadelphia beat Chicago in six. To add insult to injury, Chicago's young star Derrick Rose tore his ACL, sidelining him for all of next year. He will be remembered as an all-time great "What if?" Elsewhere, San Antonio steamrolled the Jazz and Clippers only to be shocked by OKC in the conference finals. The Spurs won ten straight before dropping four in a row to Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka. The Clippers and Grizzlies faced off for the first time with LA outlasting Memphis in 7. Extremely underrated series between these two.
However, the east stole the show this postseason. Philly beating Chicago opened the door for a Celtics vs. Heat conference finals (after Boston beat the Sixers in 7). And what a conference finals that was. The last hurrah for the Celtics' big three, LeBron battling the choker label, and that otherworldly game 6 from the king. With his back against the wall, LeBron dropped 45 and 15. And this was a man who got crucified for shying away on the big stage! This cemented him as a ruthless killer. Remember those "KD is not nice" commercials? This was his "LeBron is not human" announcement. The underdog Celtics did a great job battling an overwhelming Heat team but ultimately fell.
The Finals seemed so anticlimactic. LeBron had just exorcise his demons against the Celtics and arrived as possibly the most complete basketball player of all time. Miami made quick work of Oklahoma City, winning in five. Harden notoriously laid an egg while LeBron put up a triple double in game five on his way to finals MVP. It was all good though. The Thunder were bound to make it back with their incredibly young and promising stars.
Well, sometimes things are just too perfect. Someone had to pay Harden, KD, Westbrook, and Ibaka. And it sure as hell wasn't going to be Clay Bennett. To avoid the tax, Presti had to deal Harden to Houston for cents on the dollar. Eventually this turned into Steven Adams, so the Thunder got something out of it. Enough on that though. I'm not Simmons. In fact, this wasn't even the biggest trade of the offseason. That would be the end of the Dwightmare in Orlando. In a wild four team trade, the Lakers got Dwight, Philly got Andrew Bynum (process alert), Denver got Iguodala, and the Magic got a shitload of picks/prospects. The Lakers had their star center once again. Pairing him with Kobe seemed like a ticket to the finals. But what is this? LA made another trade? That's right, they sent a shitload of picks to God's favorite team, the Suns of Phoenix for franchise icon and two time MVP Steve Nash. As a fan, this was the end of our greatest era. It was sad. My favorite player got traded to the Lakers of all teams. I was resigned to having some kind of bastardized happiness when he got his ring. They even brought in D'antoni too! What the fuck was that?
Anyways, this Lakers team was the next superteam on paper. It was too perfect. After a 1-4 start, they fired Mike Brown and hired Mike D'Antoni. My motherfucking coach! Nash was constantly injured, Dwight was unhappy, and Kobe looked like Shaq broke into his house and shit all over his carpet. They got it together and actually resembled a good team by the end of the year. However, Kobe tore his Achilles right before the playoffs, punching the city of LA right in the collective dick.
And now for the rest of the league. The 2012-13 season was another great one. Without Harden, the Thunder got the top seed and put up a 60 win season. Not to be outdone, Miami won 66 and nearly set the record for longest winning streak in a season. IMO, this was LeBron's peak as an all around player. He's probably smarter now, and was more athletic in Cleveland, but he was so balanced and versatile that you really didn't have a weakness you could even point to. I mean god damn, the man shot 40% from three! Imagine that today.
I remember this year for the one-hit wonders, namely the Nuggets and Knicks. Largely forgotten, those two teams were seriously fun to watch. The Nugs were fast paced, high flying, and full of hustle. Iggy, Gallo, and the manimal. Ty Lawson prior to his career imploding too. They beat out some good teams for the three seed. Their Eastern counterpart was the New York Knickerbockers. This team was before their time. Bombing threes at a record pace, giving Steve Novak serious minutes, young JR in the city. Now that was fun. Definitely Melo's finest season in New York, but it was really Jason Kidd that made that team go in my opinion.
Meanwhile, the Pacers came to play behind the leadership of emerging star Paul George and fearsome big man Roy Hibbert. San Antonio continued to win, Atlanta kept their playoff streak going, the Grizz and Clips were neck and neck all year, Bucks in 6 was born, and some team from Oakland made the playoffs for the first time in a while. Even the Nets did well with the play of the highest payed man in the NBA, Joe Johnson.
The postseason started with the Heat and Thunder, last year's finals teams, slotted with the one seed in their respective conferences. A rematches seemed likely, but it was not meant to be. Russell Westbrook was injured in a collision with Patrick Beverly, knocking him out of the playoffs. They got by Houston but fell to the Grizz in 5 next round.
Speaking of the Grizz, this was perhaps their finest season ever. They came back from down 2-0 to beat the Clippers and later advanced to the conference finals. Great job Memphis.
Injuries didn't just derail Oklahoma City. Denver lost Danilo Gallinari to a torn ACL while the rest of the team suffered a spinal laceration at the hands of Andre Iguodala. The fast-paced and fun Nugs lost to Golden State in six.
All in all, the Spurs ran through the western conference. Fuck me, right?
The East was far more exciting this postseason. Unfortunately, the Bucks fell in 4, falling short of their prophecy. The Rose-less Bulls won an oddly entertaining series against Brooklyn, the Pacers made quick work of Atlanta, and New York exorcisms their demons and beat the Celtics in six.
Against Indiana, the Fighting Dolans did not fare as well. JR Smith absolutely vanished after playing so well all year. Amar'e's corpse was useless. The dream had died in New York.
This set up a Miami-Indiana conference finals, an oft-overlook classic. A lot of us forget how close this series really was. Hibbert, George, Hill, and West played out of their minds. Unfortunately, they ran into the best LeBron to ever play IMO. The man shot 51-44-78 on 29 points a game while being the leader in assists and rebounds on the Heat against the best defensive team in the league. Unreal. The series went the full seven, but the Pacers fell just short of doing the impossible.
Part of the reason we forget that conference finals was the epic that followed. Round one of Spurs-Heat showed it's not how you start, it's how you finish. The first five games, save for the initial bout, were not particularly close. That served to set up 6 and 7 as instant classics. With their backs against the wall, LeBron ditched the headband, Bosh made the most important offensive rebound in the history of basketball, and Jesus hit that infamous three to send it to OT.
We tend to forget game seven in favor of six which is a complete disservice to ourselves in my opinion. Game seven may not have had the high-strung suspense of its predecessor, but it was a classic in its own right. (Quick tidbit- Only five guys on Miami scored in game seven and Birdman only added three. So essentially, LeBron, Wade, Battier, and… Mario Chalmers outscored the Spurs.) I remember Tim Duncan missing an easy layup and slapping the floor just as well as Allen hitting the three. LeBron turning the corner, NOT PASSING THE BALL, and hitting the series clinching midrange shouldn't be forgotten so easily. What a way to end the season.
Well boys, it happened this offseason. The single worst trade in NBA history. After trading Doc to the Clippers, the Celtics were in a full rebuild mode. Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets were buyers looking to win. So they sent KG, PP, Jet, and DJ White in exchange for (brace yourselves): Gerald Wallace (who they just traded a first- Damian Lillard- for), Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks, Kris Joseph, Keith Bogans, three first round picks and the right to swap in 2017.
Jesus Christ on the cross. The Nets mortgaged their future for three guys above 35. Not only did they trade three first round picks, they even went out of their way to use a pick-swap loophole to give the Celtics another one. I know we love to be armchair GMs but I really think any knowledgeable NBA fan would never have made that trade. Not in a million years.
In all honesty the rest of the offseason pales in comparison to the trade. Damn near half the league fired their coach, even Memphis who had made the conference finals. Phil Jackson made his return to basketball. Masai Ujiri left for Toronto. The Knicks traded a first for Andrea Bargnani, the Warriors got Iggy in a sign and trade, and the Sixers shipped Jrue Holiday to Nawlins for Nerlens Noel and a pick.
Shameless plug here- the Suns had a lowkey great offseason. We got Gerald Green (good for us), Miles Plumlee (good for us for one year), and a first for Luis Scola. We also dumped a shitload of money to the Wizards for Emeka Okafor and a first. Best of all, we got Eric Bledsoe for Jared Dudley. We got younger, better, and opened up cap space.
When I think of the 2013-14 season, the team that sticks out to me the most is the Clippers. Not the Thunder, Heat, or my beloved Suns. The Clips had the strangest season I've ever seen. IMO this was their best team- Collison as backup PG, Big Baby Davis getting minutes, Matt Barnes starting- and could've won it all.
They breezed to the third seed to face the Warriors of all teams. Easily favored, the Clips were all but set to move on.
Well, until Donald Sterling ran his racist, senile mouth. He told V. Stiviano not to bring black people to his games and not to associate with them. On a related note, he didn't get his second lifetime award from the NAACP he was supposed to in May. Life comes at you fast.
Subsequently, Sterling received a lifetime ban from the NBA. There was no place for him in the modern league. All the while, his team was casually playing in the postseason. The Clippers were pissed and distracted. Why wouldn't they be? Their fucking owner wouldn't want to associate with all but two and a half of them. LA got by in seven regardless.
The next round was a forgotten classic against MVP Kevin Durant. The Clippers orchestrated one of the greatest comebacks of all time to tie the series at 2 to set up a pivotal game five. I'll never forget the sequence of events at the end. Less than a minute left, Clips up 104-97, KD hits a three. Jamal misses his layup, KD makes his. Two point game. Right off the inbound, Westbrook rips CP3 and passes it to Reggie Jackson who seemingly loses it out of bounds. After a lengthy review, the officials incorrectly rule possession for OKC. On the ensuing play, CP3 (debatably) fouls Westbrook's 3 point attempt. He hits all three giving OKC a one point lead. LA calls timeout with 6 seconds left. On the other end, Paul loses the handle, sealing OKC's win. A crusher. The Thunder take game six and move on.
I'd like to take a moment to remember how LA got screwed that game five. And it wasn't just against Houston that they seemed cursed.
The 2013-14 season as a whole was probably my favorite since I started watching. The Pacers starting hot and sputtering at the end, Kawhi's emergence as a star, Dallas, Memphis, and Phoenix vying for the last two spots in the west, the Bobcats making the playoffs, the Raptors winning a comically bad Atlantic Division, Damian and LaMarcus bringing Portland back to the playoffs, and on and on.
I admittedly think back fondly to this season because of our unexpected success. I remember Bill Simmons saying his life would be a failure if he watching five of our games. And you know what? He was right at the time. We sucked.
But sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle. Goran Dragic, God bless that man, came home and led the offense like Nash and Kidd before him. PJ Tucker was hitting corner threes, Miles Plumlee was hitting hook shots, and the Morris brothers weren't being fat dickheads. Dragic played valiantly, earring third team all-NBA, but we feel one game short of the postseason. Such is life.
Speaking of postseason, 2013-14's first round was the best ever. San Antonio was pushed to 7 by the eight-seed Mavericks, powered by old man Carter's iconic buzzer beater. Oddly enough, Dallas was San Antonio's biggest challenge. OKC with MVP Durant faced Memphis and promptly went into overtime four times before blowing them out the last two. Shoutout to Zbo for getting suspended for game seven. The Clips beat GS in seven (quite the series). In fact, the only western series that don't go to seven was Houston vs Portland. LaMarcus and Dwight killed it all series. Troy Daniels was the Hero of the Day for Houston once. However, one play defined that whole series- Dame's buzzer beater. Iconic as fuck.
Across the Mississip' was another classic first round. Top seeded Indiana needed seven games to beat 38 win Atlanta. To this day Indiana's implosion is a mystery. Miami laughed Charlotte off the court. Toronto and Brooklyn went to seven as well. I irrationally got really into this series. I was really rooting for Lowry and co to pull this one out. That very last play in game seven couldn't have been more telegraphed. Fuck you Casey. Lastly, the Wall Star made his playoff debut, knocking off Chicago behind the expert tactician Playoff Wittman's leadership.
In the semis OKC beat LA (see above) and San Antonio ran through a bench-less Portland. The Wizards kept it close, but collapsed in game 4, blowing a shot to tie the series. Indiana survives. Miami made quick work of Brooklyn even though Brooklyn swept them in the regular season. Who knew?
This set up a pair of rematches in the conference finals. The Spurs had lost to the Thunder in 2012 but had a new weapon- Kawhi Leonard. To make matters worse for OKC, Serge Ibaka was out for the first two games. Subsequently, San Antonio took the first two quite easily. In game three, Ibaka made his triumphant return. His defensive versatility led OKC to wins in games three and four with a rematch with Miami looming. San Antonio surprisingly responded by eviscerating OKC in game five and later edging them out in OT. Old man Duncan rode again.
Meanwhile, Indiana may have been running on fumes but were ready to put up a fight. They came out swinging in game one but fell in the next three. Indy came back from a double digit deficit to force a game six but it was all for naught. Miami advanced once again, crippling Roy Hibbert's career in the process.
The Finals, well, were not so good. You remember game one for the AC going this the LeCramp debacle. Game two actually was close with Miami evening it up. Then it got ugly. The Spurs' team ball and use of dribble handoffs stymied the Heat's hyper aggressive switching. Kawhi became the guy while Wade fossilized on court. The Heat were simply too thin, slow, and old for San Antonio.
This, coupled with some fortuitous lottery luck, made coming home an appealing option for LeBron. On July 11th, 2014, he made his choice. The rest is history.
The past three years, we’ve known the finals matchup far beyond the playoffs started (and even the champion in the preseason last year). I recognize the greatness of the Warriors. They were arguably the best team of all time and will continue to dominate the league. That’s impressive. Likewise, LeBron made the finals for the seventh straight year. What a testament that is to his legacy. I doubt we’ll see such an extreme dominance of a conference by one man in a long time.
But the playoffs, especially pre-finals, just aren’t as exciting as they used to be. Have we had any pre-finals moments like 2014 when like half the first round series went to game seven? The Pacers pushing the Heat to the brink in 2013 behind Paul George’s emergence as a star? The upstart Warriors shocking the Nuggets? The Grizz knocking off the 1 seed Spurs? The inexplicably thrilling Nets vs Bulls first round matchup? Chris Paul and the Clippers getting hosed by the refs against OKC (loved that Clips team)? The Knicks looking like contenders for a year? These are some of my fondest memories of the NBA- but they were also meaningful. We just haven't had anything like that recently.
Sure, LeBron’s Heat was nearly lock for the finals. But those Pacers gave them a run for their money twice. And the Celtics didn’t go down without a fight. Miami couldn’t coast their way to the finals back then. They had to work for it, and without fail, they always kept it exciting. You could always bet on the East giving the Heat one challenger.
Then there’s the West. What more do I need to say? Even though my team got drilled these years, it was always a blast following the West throughout the season. Things always seemed to shake out differently. The Mavericks went on their legendary title run and promptly dismantled the team. OKC’s young, promising core made their first (and last) finals, an all-time great what-could-have-been. San Antonio’s revival spurred by beautiful team ball and Kawhi’s breakthrough.
The competition wasn’t just the the top; Every team always came to play. Has there ever been such competitive play from the 8 seed? Let’s reminisce. The Grizz knocked off the top seeded Spurs in 2011. The Mavericks pushed San Antonio to the brink. (Vince Carter buzzer beater anyone?) The new-look Rockets with their freshly acquired James Harden made it a series against his old team.
Competition doesn’t just mean the postseason though. The regular seasons meant more for two reasons: more teams had a legitimate shot at the Finals and the advent of The Process™ had not yet reached the league.
I’ve gotten used to the Warriors vs Cavs finals. 2015 was a surprise for Golden State, but the past two years, we’ve pretty much known they were both going back. To make it worse, the much-beleaguered KD defection worsened the talent disparity. In other words, get ready for more Cavs vs Warriors.
Back then, you had to fight during the regular season because seeding mattered. You didn’t want to slip up towards the end and get matched up with the Grizz. San Antonio, OKC, LA Clippers, Memphis, and Dallas all were serious contenders at least once during this era. The little things during the season could change the course of the playoffs, be it one trade (looking at you Danny Granger), injury, etc. You never knew how things were going to shake out.
I will admit out east it was top heavy. Generally, there was the Heat and one or two other challengers. And in all honesty, that’s better than what we have now. It was fun watching the Bulls and Pacers steal the one seed from the Heat. Old man Garnett making his last stand against a pissed off LeBron. PG force feeding Birdman his shit. Other than that though, it wasn’t nearly as wild as the west.
In a trade that will live in infamy, Philadelphia swapped all-star Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel and a top-five protected pick in 2014. This was newly-acquired GM Sam Hinkie’s first big move in Philly. A collective feeling of "what the fuck?" filled the air; Holiday was Philly's best player and supposed second banana to Andrew Bynum. Maybe I was just a stupid kid at the time, but it made no sense to me. This is what we can look back to as the start of the process. Hinkie became the first GM to outright say the league is flawed. You need a superstar, and realistically one or two more, to win the finals. The Sixers were nowhere near the bottom or the top. But shit, they had just recently beat the top-seeded Bulls in round one and took the Celtics to seven. This was not a bad team. But that's not what the NBA was about, Hinkie asserted. GMs and coaches can usually keep their jobs by being not bad. Why wouldn't they? Only one team wins. 29 lose. Not one owner could expect to win every year, and cleaning house after each season is definitely not the way to succeed.
But Hinkie didn't want to settle. Complacency was the enemy. He knew the only reliable way to land a superstar was in the draft. Specifically, the top of the draft.
So the Sixers got bad. And I mean real bad. They lost and lost and lost, but they got their top picks. Just as importantly, they got their assets too. By taking on bad contracts, vets, and exploiting Sacramento, Philly had a treasure trove of picks down the line. They used a lot of their ammo to acquire Markelle Fultz- one of those franchise changing superstars.
Controversial as it may be, tanking has become widespread in the NBA. Since Golden State and Cleveland seem unbeatable, many teams, including my beloved Suns, have decided to start a “youth movement” in the meantime. (Sidenote: Props to Minnesota, Denver, Boston, Toronto, and all the other teams who aren’t rolling over. Godspeed to all of you)
What we have now is an extremely polarized sense of championship or bust. What was about 10 total contenders between 2011-2014 has been whittled down to 3. As a result, tanking has become an epidemic. The Sixers have their well-documented process. Mark Cuban admitted to tanking. My Suns sat veterans who could’ve added a few wins. The Hawks just blew it up. The Knicks are expressing interest in a “youth movement”. Orlando is doing something.
Can you blame them though? Winning any time soon seems like an impossibility. The west looks like a meat grinder this year, but the Warriors are just too good. And when you know who’s going to win from day one, the entertainment value just isn’t the same.
"I wish there was a way to know you're in the good old days before you've actually left them." -Andy Bernard

What team over/under bets would you take? Here are my own recommendations

Sports gambling is usually a bad idea, and gambling on Vegas "oveunders" is worse than most. (For those not familiar, oveunder simply means whether the team will win more or less than a specific team total for the regular season.)
The trouble is betting on oveunders is that you're only going to get a modest return -- and you're tying your money up for months in the process. Given the state of the country, we may have devolved in a full out civil war by then.
So all in all, I would not recommend betting oveunders. However, if you do, then I would recommend the following ones.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Milwaukee: 56.0
The Bucks went 60-22 last year, so this sounds like a fair regression (especially when you factor in the loss of Malcolm Brogdon and his red-hot shooting season.) PASS.
Philadelphia: 53.0
Based on the results last year (51-31, +2.7 point differential), this may be optimistic, but it's a talented team that's difficult to bet against. Adding Al Horford also mitigates against the risk of a Joel Embiid injury. PASS.
Indiana: 49.0
The Pacers played legitimately good basketball last year (48-34, +3.3), so this sounds reasonable. Indiana also improved their wing depth with Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holiday, which should help in the event of Victor Oladipo missing extended time. PASS.
Boston: 48.5
Again, you're banking on them effectively matching last year's total (49-33) as they go from Kyrie Irving to Kemba Walker. Kemba may be slightly worse game-to-game, but tends to be more durable. He may also help with team chemistry. All in all, I'd project this team to win between 45-50 games, which puts them right in this range and makes them another PASS.
Brooklyn: 46.0
Vegas is projecting an improvement from 42-40, and you can make that argument based on the upgrade from D'Angelo Russell to Kyrie Irving and the natural improvement of their young core. Caris LeVert should also play more games as well. Still, it's a high-end number that I wouldn't be excited to bet. PASS.
Toronto: 45.5
The idea that Kawhi Leonard propped up the Toronto Raptors on his own is a little bizarre to me; this is a team that won 56, 51, and 59 games the three seasons before him. Still, the roster is now missing quite a few wings, and relying on two aging stars in Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol. I'd lean "under" and presume more like 44 wins, but that's a close call. And I don't want to bet against Nick Nurse and this culture. PASS.
Miami: 41.5
The Miami Heat disappointed with a 39-43 record last year, and now added Jimmy Butler to the fold. That alone should put them in contention to hit on this 41.5. More than that, I'd say there's a good chance that Chris Paul winds up on the team (for a minimal return.) OKC is claiming that they're willing to go into the season with him, but that sounds like a media-planted negotiating tactic to me. If the Heat can land Chris Paul to go along with Butler and the improving young players, I'd project closer to 45 wins than 40. Let's go with the OVER.
Orlando: 40.5
This would represent a near repeat of the 42-40 from last year, which makes some sense since the Magic didn't change much of their roster. Hard to get too pumped up to be on either side of this. PASS.
Detroit: 37.0
When they're clicking on all cylinders, the Detroit Pistons are better than a 37 win team; they're perhaps in the 42-44 win range. The trouble with actually laying money down on that theory is that you're banking on 70+ games from Blake Griffin. Given his history, that's too much of a risk to bet. PASS.
Atlanta: 33.5
There's natural enthusiasm for Trae Young and this Hawks team (which explains the jump from 29 wins to a possible 33.5), but this is still a very young team that should struggle on defense. I'm tempted to go "under" here, but I'll give them a PASS instead.
Chicago: 29.5
The Chicago Bulls were a disaster last year (22-60) so this line seems optimistic at first glance. But the more you think about it...? The more tempting it looks. While fans are more excited about young teams like Atlanta and Dallas, you can make the argument that Chicago is a little further along in terms of their timeline. Lauri Markkanen will be entering year 3, Zach LaVine will be entering year 6, Otto Porter will be entering year 7. These guys are near the meat of their primes. The Bulls also signed some quality veterans to supplement them, including Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young.
No doubt, there are some concerns. Rookie PG Coby White probably isn't ready to be a "winning" player, so the more minutes he gets, the more losses this team will accrue. Coach Jim Boylen also had a bumpy start to his tenure. However, drill sergeant coaches like that can sometimes squeeze 1 or 2 years of improvement from their squad, and I wouldn't be shocked if that's the case here. These Bulls could be looking at 35 wins. And given that, I'm giving them an enthusiastic OVER bet.
N.Y. Knicks: 28.5
I'm not particularly a fan of the Knicks' offseason, but they're clearly not rolling over. They want to make a playoff push, which is half the battle in exercises like this. I can see them nearing 30-35 wins. In fact, I'd lean to the over here, but since I already bet on Chicago in a similar situation, I'll bow out and PASS.
Washington: 26.5
The Wizards would be a tough one to bank on either way. If they go full force, perhaps Bradley Beal is good enough to lead them to 35 wins on his own. But if they throw in the white towel and trade Beal...? We could be talking about a 20-win club. I don't like to bet on uncertainty like that, so I'll PASS.
Charlotte: 25.0
Like the New York Knicks, the Charlotte Hornets fumbled the offseason (in my humble opinion.) However, they added expensive talent (?) in Terry Rozier, indicating that they're going to try to win games. And when you do that, you risk blowing up my oveunder here. PASS.
Cleveland: 24.0
Among all the teams in the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the most committed to a full on rebuild/tank. In fact, they may even start Darius Garland and Collin Sexton in the backcourt together, which may end up being the worst defensive combination in the entire NBA.
I'd be eyeing the "under" here, but there are two reasons holding me back. One: Kevin Love is still on the roster, and is still a good player. Secondly: lottery reforms makes egregious tanking less necessary. As long as you're in the top 4, you have the same chances of nabbing the # 1 pick.
Still, looking around at the landscape from last year, the bottom barrel teams won about 20 games, so perhaps the Cavs do the same. I expect them to play poorly for most of the season (by nature of a rebuild), and then turn on the tank gas toward the final month of the season. Let's go with the UNDER here.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

L.A. Clippers: 55.5
On paper, the Clippers may be the best team in the entire NBA. However, if you're betting regular season oveunders, there are reasons to be concerned. Through his career, Kawhi Leonard has averaged 60 / 82 games per season. If he continues to manage his workload like that, 55.5 would be an optimistic number to hit in the West.
More than anything, this may be a matter of will (or lack thereof.) Kawhi Leonard has championship experience - Doc Rivers has championship experience. I don't foresee them pushing hard to rack up regular season wins. As long as they can make it to the playoffs at 100% they should be happy. But given that, we'd lean to the UNDER on their regular season win total.
Houston: 53.5
This win total makes a lot of sense if you base the number on last season (when the Rockets won 53 games.) However, that "53" may have been an underachievement for them. Over the last three seasons with Mike D'Antoni, the team has averaged 57.7 wins.
Going forward, you can debate the Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook swap and how it may affect the team in the playoffs. But in terms of the regular season...? It seems like an obvious boost, for durability reasons alone. Chris Paul has managed his workload, while Westbrook tends to go full throttle every night. In fact, over the last three years, he's played 48% more regular season minutes than CP3. Whether those minutes are overrated or not, they should be helpful to some degree. To me, 55 wins is doable, making this a formal OVER bet.
Utah: 53.5
I'm a fan of the Utah Jazz's offseason moves, but still hesitant to get fully on board with this line. No doubt, they should be better with the additional spacing. But 3 wins better...? (They averaged about 50 over the last three years.) Maybe. Maybe not. That's a high line and represents a thin margin for error. PASS.
L.A. Lakers: 52.5
The tandem of LeBron James and Anthony Davis is probably the best duo in the NBA. And with a decent supporting cast around them, they may be a genuine threat to win the title. But again, this isn't about the playoffs; this is about the regular season. And LeBron James teams have not pushed the pedal to the medal in the regular season since his early days in Cleveland (the initial run). They may be able to win 50+ based on talent alone, but methinks they'll save some gas in the tank. PASS.
Denver: 51.5
The Denver Nuggets won 54 games last season, but may have slightly overachieved based on deeper numbers (their +4.0 point differential ranked 8th, their SRS ranked 7th.) More likely, they would have been a 51-52 win team if you repeated last season in a simulator 1000x. Perhaps they improve based on youth, but in general this seems like a close and fair line. PASS.
Golden State: 49.0
Not only are the Golden State Warriors losing arguably the best player in the game in Kevin Durant, but they'll be without Klay Thompson for at least half the season as well. If you watched Steph Curry struggling the box-and-one in the Finals, you'd be quite nervous about this team's ability to recover.
But alas, this won't be the same depleted team from the Finals. D'Angelo Russell may have been an overpay, but he's certainly capable of providing some offensive punch. He'll come with an assortment of new bodies like Willie Cauley-Stein, Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III, and Omari Spellman. None of these players may be world-beaters on their own, but as long as they can provide some credible help, Steph Curry should be in contention for MVP and help carry this team over 50 wins. I'm inclined to beat the "over," but the concern that Curry (now 31) may not be able to carry them through the 82-game grind leads me to back away and PASS.
Portland: 47.5
I'm taking these lines from one specific online sportsbook, but others have Portland lower. As is tradition. The Blazers will perpetually be underrated by the public no matter how many 50 win seasons they can rattle off. If you can find this in the 45 range, then I'd be happy to take the "over." 47.5 isn't a terrible line though, so I'll PASS.
San Antonio: 45.5
Like Portland, San Antonio is perpetually underrated by sportsbooks and gamblers who don't think of them as a trendy bet to make. In reality, the Spurs have not won less than 45.5 games since the strike-shortened season in 1998-99. Seriously. With Dejounte Murray returning, they will presumably be better than the 48-34 team from last year as well. The only reason I'm going to holster my money here is because I'm a stupid fan myself, but also because their point differential was more in line with a 45-win team last year. Given that, it's not a ridiculous line as the history suggests. PASS.
Dallas: 41.5
Last season, Dallas went 33-49, so this line is really based on the idea that Luka Doncic can take another step up, and that Kristaps Porzingis can stay healthy. Maybe. I wouldn't rule it out. But I wouldn't count on it either. Once again, we're going to PASS.
New Orleans: 38.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are chocked full of talent that goes beyond their young bucks. In addition to the Zion Williamsons of the world, they also added veterans like J.J. Redick and Derrick Favors. I genuinely believe they're a threat to chase the 8th seed. But a threat is no guarantee, so I'm going to exercise a "wait and see" approach before getting too optimistic here. PASS.
Sacramento: 37.0
If you believe that young teams naturally take steps up every year, then this line would be too low. The Kings won 39 games last year, and will only be more seasoned from here. On the downside, their 3-point shooting may have been an overachievement that's primed for a regression. There's a chance that this team gets better, but still only wins 38-or-so games again. Not loving either side of this line. PASS.
Minnesota: 35.5
If you average last year's wins with the year prior, Minnesota would be in 40-win range. Given that and the offensive brilliance of Karl-Anthony Towns, you may be able to talk yourself into an "over" here. But personally? I'm still hesitant. Right now the team still looks a little wonky on paper, highlighted by two wings in Andrew Wiggins and Jarrett Culver that can't really shoot with consistency. Between that and the tough conference, this feels more like a stay away to me. PASS.
Memphis: 26.5
Fans are excited about the future of the Ja Morant - Jaren Jackson Jr. combination, but that future doesn't necessarily have to be now. In fact, Memphis is only one of two teams (along with Cleveland, and maybe Charlotte) that doesn't have dreams of cracking the playoff field. They're going to embrace the full rebuild, which should mean a lot of losses, particularly late in the season once they start collecting lottery balls. This feels like an appropriate UNDER to take.
Phoenix: 26.0
Coming into last season, the Phoenix Suns actually had a higher oveunder than the Sacramento Kings. With another year of experience, there's a chance that they make a Kings-ian mini-leap and jump into the 30-35 win range. It's possible. That said, I wouldn't necessarily count on it. PASS.
Oklahoma City: not listed / off the board (due to CP3 uncertainty)

TL;DR

We only made a few bets, but here they are...
OVER: Houston (53.5), Miami (41.5), Chicago (29.5)
UNDER: L.A. Clippers (55.5), Memphis (26.5), Cleveland (24.0)

[OC] Teams that will perform worse in the second half of the season

We tend to overuse the word "regression" in sports, but there's some value to the concept when it comes to predicting future results. Win-loss record can be deceiving, so you have to dig further into the numbers to determine which records are likely to continue and which are likely to be a mirage.
While there are 1000 different statistics that we can start to analyze to that end, I always find the simplest route is these 3 major factors.
(1) Point differential. Statisticians have always utilized "point differential" as a more predictive stat than pure wins-losses. The common sense suggests that a 100-80 win is a stronger statement than a 101-100 win. The superiority of point differential to predict future success is less extreme in basketball (because teams do tend to "turn on the gas" when needed), but it's still generally valid. For example, in this season, the Utah Jazz got off to a slow start, but had a positive point differential. Sure enough, the wins soon followed. Conversely, teams with better-than-expected records and mediocre point differentials (like Memphis or Orlando) started to sag.
(2) 3-point shooting. Some players improve as shooters over the course of their careers. Some get worse. But if a player's three point percentage takes a SUDDEN jolt (either up or down) there's always a strong chance of regression coming. For example, Klay Thompson got off to a cold start this year from beyond the arc, but is predictably warming up. The Houston Rockets also started in a shooting slump, but have started to turn that around (with wins to match.) Because three pointers are so important, the natural ebb and flow is something that we should monitor.
(3) Injuries. Obviously, injuries to star players can affect a team's performance. If a team anticipates getting that star back, then they can be expected to improve. Alternatively, if a team has been uniquely healthy then they may get slightly worse when a normal amount of injuries hit.
We used that easy formula to check in on teams that should get better, so now let’s examine some teams that may stumble in the second half.

teams that will be worse than their current record

Sacramento Kings: 24-24, 10th seed in the West
As far as unexpectedly hot starts go, the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks have already started to cool off. The Sacramento Kings are hanging around, but may be joining them soon.
The most obvious red flag would be their point differential of -2.0, a mark well below their .500 record. Their net rating (-1.7 per 100 possessions) is also a below-average mark that ranks 21st in the NBA. By all accounts, this team should already be worse than their record so far.
The shooting numbers suggest it may take an even stronger dip than anticipated. SF Nemanja Bjelica got off to a scorching start (shooting over 50% from three) that is already trending down to 41.3%. Buddy Hield is a great shooter (43% from three over the last two years) but also punching slightly over his weight class with a 45.5% mark that would be hard to anybody to sustain.
But at the end of the day, the player who is most likely to regress is their most pleasant surprise so far: super soph De'Aaron Fox. Fox has exploded in Year 2 from every category, and is shooting 36.9% from beyond the arc. It's natural for a young player to improve, but this much improvement makes you raise an eyebrow. Fox only shot 30.7% as a rookie last year. Moreover, his mediocre free throw percentage (72% from the line both years) suggest that his stroke is not as pure as someone like Hield. I would bet against Fox shooting 35% from three in the second half of the year, which should push these Kings a little further down the standings.
In terms of injuries, it goes both ways. I'm a big Marvin Bagley III fan so I'd like to see him come back and play 25+ minutes a night. He has All-Star potential down the road. Still, it's hard for most rookies to be "positive" players, so 25+ minutes a night for Bagley may not be a great thing for a playoff chase this year.
All in all, this is a Sacramento team that is most likely the 12th best team in the West. I would not expect their playoff push to continue throughout the year.
L.A. Clippers: 26-22, 8th seed in the West
Doc Rivers' brigade of above-average players have worked like a charm this year, yielding a 26-22 record and a playoff spot. So far. But if I had to gamble on their second half, I would bet against them making the field.
The point differential suggests this team may be overachieving slightly, at a +0.4 mark that's closer to .500 than 26-22. But to be fair, that's splitting hairs. That's around their expected record.
But my biggest concern for this team is that they've had to click on all cylinders to get to that record. Most notably: Danilo Gallinari. The Italian Stallion is playing like a star again, nailing 44.6% from three on the year. He's a good shooter, but he's not that good. For his career, he averages 37.5%. Expect him to shoot around that mark again.
The bigger concern is about Gallinari's health. He's played 44 games this year, but that durability may not continue. Gallinari has missed at least 15 games over each of the past 4 seasons. The idea that Gallinari would be 100% healthy for the entire year feels overly optimistic to me. And if Gallo misses an extended stretch, that may cause the team to sag. While the Clippers do have great depth, they're not loaded at the SF-PF spots beyond Tobias Harris and Gallinari. An injury to either would be a tough blow to overcome.
Overall, I'd expect this team to be around .500 in the second half of the season and finish around the 9 or 10 spot in the West.
Brooklyn Nets: 26-23, 6th seed in the East
This one pains me, because I am a huge fan of the rebuild that Sean Marks and Kenny Atkinson have achieved so far in the most difficult of circumstances. I am a fan of their decisions, their culture, and the passion of their fanbase. But to that fanbase, I would simply urge some slight caution. Your team may not be ready… yet.
The team has a better record than point differential (+0.2), but again, that's a marginal difference. In fact, with the team's constant improvement, you may project continued growth from here. They have won 5 games in a row, after all. They're hot.
But with that, there's a decent chance of a regression as well. The biggest culprit to that end would be new-star D'Angelo Russell. Russell has started to showcase his upside as a scorer this season, lighting it up for 19.3 points per game (and 24.1 PPG in January).
Still, there's a concern about how he is doing that scoring. Russell hardly ever gets to the free throw line. He's averaging 1.9 attempts per game, and is even under that 2.0 mark during his hot run in January.
And when you're not getting to the line, you're heavily reliant on your ability to shoot. There are shooters who can get away with that formula: Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, etc. It'd a stretch to lump Russell in with that group. His 43.8% from the field represents a career high (which had been the 41.4% from last year). He's shooting 37.9% from three, despite a career 35.3% total.
There's absolutely a chance that Russell (still only 22) has turned the corner after 3 mediocre years. But there's also a chance that he's shooting better than expected and is about to take a step back. And if that happens, his inability/unwillingness to draw free throws will become much more problematic. I imagine this may be an unpopular notion right now, in the same way it was unpopular when I pointed out the same about Dion Waiters (during his hot season) and Donovan Mitchell (during his rookie year). We all may hate free throws, but they are hugely important for scorers.
Overall, I would still expect these Nets to make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference, but I would not count on this current trend where they're rocketing up the standings. More likely, they will settle in the back half of the playoff field and get bounced in 5 games in round one.
Indiana Pacers: 32-15, 3rd seed in the East
Unfortunately, we had to add this one in late after the horrible news about Victor Oladipo's season-ending injury. It's a cruel blow for him and a fanbase that's gone through this before.
There's no question the Pacers will be worse in the second half of the season: it's simply a matter of how much worse?
I don't think you can make the argument that Oladipo propped this team on his back in the same way James Harden does. While Oladipo may have been earning some darkhorse (and irrational) MVP predictions heading into the season, he predictably regressed as a shooter after his career year. That said, he's still a legit All-Star and someone that ESPN real plus/minus grades as the third best SG in the NBA. That'll be tough to replace.
On the bright side, the Pacers have one of the few backup guards capable of trying to emulate him in Tyreke Evans. Evans isn't great for every situation, but he has experience acting as a high usage playmaker in a way that few backups do. If he can play Poor Man's Oladipo, he can help fill that gap to some degree.
You also have to retain some faith in the Pacers' defensive system and culture. Oladipo was a key part of that, but it goes beyond Oladipo. In fact, the Pacers have averaged a top 10 defense since all the way back in 2000.
So all in all, this is a more optimistic portion of the post. The Pacers will be worse (qualifying them for this section), but not egregiously worse. They may be around .500 or even slightly better in the second half of the season. And with that, I expect them to only dip down to the 5th seed by the end of the year.

CreateYoureReality NBA Analysis and Picks 3/31

Last Post Recap: Singles (3-7, -3.96U) Parlay(2-0, +4.77U) BBDLS (0-2, -5.5U)
Recap: Not the best day. A few singles missed by 1. Kanter failed to live up to what was expecting. I still feel he is going to be a big piece of their playoff run and future. Still ready to crush a BBDLS! I didnt post yesterday. Honestly I played poker until 4am Fri night and slept until 2pm Sat. Also, I was banned from the sportsbook sub for posting my picks in the daily nba thread? I messaged the mods to ask why but no reply. I am going to assume its because I posted a link to this sub at the end of my analysis every day? But that would be weird because I add (in my opinion at least) some of the better content in that daily thread. Also, I have never asked for money (even though I have had pms offering donations or advising me to start a service and charge) and there are tons of users, losing users, who continuously post external links and pay for picks links yet I get banned with no explanation other than "excessive self promotion" lol. Anyway, I was going to finish out the NBA season and consider switching to MLB to see if my algorithm can translate to that sport after doing extremely well in NFL and translating fairly well to the NBA. But, if I do that I will probably post solely in this sub or maybe create a website because when I have posted my vlog in the poker sub (99 percent crap memes and shitty analysis of the game) i get banned because you cant share yourself with the community, only your shitty memes...and when i post legit content to the sportsbook sub (mostly shitty advice from break even/losing gamblers, no offence) I get banned. So if you're reading and following along with the analysis and picks, make sure to check back here for new content. Its already afternoon on Sun so Ill skip the early game, lets find some value!
Analysis:

DAL/OKC: Dal has been putting up some fights lately. There season is done but they are doing their best to see what the young guys have to offer for next season. OKC has flip flopped their last 4 both winning and losing at home and away. I could see OKC opening as a favorite. 5, 7, even 9.5 if sharps saw them as a blowout...but 12.5?! How? Yes, the last time these two met OKC won by 20 at home. But the way each team has been playing lately I could see DAL covering such a big line. Shoot, I could see DAL winning a 2 point game with a Donic last second shot.***Wait, just read Donic is out. I could see many OKC blowouts now :P***

LAL/NOP: Now that the playoff pressure is off, LA has been playing pretty well with wins in 3 of their last 4. NO also got an upset of the Kings in their last outing but other than that are meh. I know I said I was done with LA after their playoff miss, but now I kinda like the vibe they have going with 0 pressure. This would feel like a game to take over for me but Im getting somewhere in the 230-235 range and thats too close. Maybe if it was 230 or below I would take over. Bron out. AD, Q. I dont have a line for it, but i would look at Popes points total over if you have it.

SAC/SAS: SAC off losses in 3 out of their last 4. SA also with a bit of a struggle going 2-3 in their last 5 after beating the warriors. I love the spurs to continue to assert the Defensive will at home but 11 is a lot of points to fade. If there is someone to cover one of the bigger spreads tonight I would put my faith in SA at home vs some of the other big spreads today but still 11 is a lot...

WAS/DEN: WAS is done for the season in terms of post season chances. However, they are still playing the starters and trying to compete. For how long though, who knows? DEN has flip flopped in their last 5, but their 2 losses were both on the road. This game to me just comes down to how bad WAS wants to compete. They can easily play their starters, compete in the game and keep it close...but i have a feeling its more likely the Joker dominates the middle and carries DEN to an easy win.

CHA/GS: CHA has been playing well lately with wins in 4 of 5 (3 over playoff teams). GS has been up and down lately with two dominate performances and 2 weird losses. I view this game exactly like the DEN/WAS game. CHA totally has a chance but its up to them to play starters and fight. I think DEN has a better chance at a blowout, but this game has a better chance to hit the over as there is less blowout potential.

MEM/LAC: MEM has been struggling going 3-3 recently and they are playing a b2b tonight. The Clippers also playing a b2b but have the luxury of playing home home and they went into yesterdays 4th Q with a 10 point lead carrying them into an easier victory than MEM. Still, 9 points is a lot here. I know MEM isnt playing for anything and LA is trying to catch UTAH for better playoff seating but still, 9/9.5 is a lot of points. Normally I would love the over in this matchup but double b2bs has me skeptical.

Today's Singles (Overall Total: 213-203-2, +53.07U) All bets without a wager listed are 1u @ -110

LA ml (2U to win 3.2U)
JaVale McGee 16.5 PTs Over (1.25U to win 1U)
JaVale McGee 11.5 RBDs Over (2U to win 2.1U)
Julius Randle 23.5 PTs Over (0.63U to win 0.5U)
Julius Randle 8.5 RBDs Over (2.3U to win 2U)
Nikola Jokic 20.5 PTs Over (0.8U to win 0.5U)
Nikola Jokic 11.5 RBDs Over (1U to win 1U)
OKC -12
MEM +10
LAL 234.5 Over
SAS 227 Under
WAS 226 Over
GS 229 Over
MEM 221.5 Over
Lines are not out yet, but I will be all over JoVals props.

Basic Parlay(35-58, +25.77U) and BIG BOY DADDY LONG SHOT PARLAY (2-46,+2.25U)
Basic:

OKC -7.5 ,GS -7.5, LAL +7.5 MEM +7.5, DEN 1Q ml (1U to win 13.2U)

BBDLS:

OKC -8, MEM +14, LAL 230.5 O, MEM 217.5 O, CHA 225 O, DEN 222 O, SAS 231 U, LAL +8 (3.3U to win 33U)

Thanks for reading, Good luck all!

Miami & The Mavericks: Two franchises cross paths once again.

The Miami Heat & the Dallas Mavericks, two teams, currently wading through what you could call the final iteration of the once mighty titans who battled it out in the 2011 NBA finals, now find themselves in a similar position once again. Ironically, this time they battle on the other end of the spectrum
In the aftermath of the 2011 finals, it would’ve been difficult to predict that these two teams would cross paths in the fashion they find themselves now, especially so soon.
For Miami, things weren’t supposed to go like this (Don’t get me wrong, Miami was wildly successful & no one will tell you otherwise). Despite a slight derailment in their first go at things, 2017 should be the year Miami goes for the 6th of 7 titles in a row they’re going to bring Miami. LeBron will probably still battle the incumbent western conference powerhouse this June, but it won’t be in South Beach. Miami had an awful turn of luck dragging them from great, down to good, then up to really good, then down to not good, then all the way down to where they find themselves today. The real tragedy of Miami’s situation is that there really isn’t anyone you can fault. This team should AT worst be a Dragic, Richardson, Winslow, Bosh, Whiteside team with Tyler Johnson Old man role Wade & a few others coming off the bench. That team is likely at least the 4 seed in the east right now. At best, Lebron doesn’t get homesick, the Heat still hit the Whiteside lottery & the Heatles get the super center they imagined when Greg Oden had signed originally.
Problem is, thrombophilia doesn’t care what ‘should happen’, anti-factor Xa injectable anticoagulants don’t care that there’s a game at 4pm tonight, followed by a cross country flight, followed by a 9pm game tomorrow night with another cross country flight after that.
We can control our health, we can only do our best to maintain it & plan around it. I feel awful about the fact that Chris Bosh is in the situation he is in, the man is going to have to battle this for the rest of his life. The league lost a top 15 player, & as a franchise has fallen hard as a result of this precipitous situation.
Now the Heat find themselves in the reality of our 2017, and a team who started out the season as one of the worst in the league who has since propped up that dreadful start with an NBA leading winning streak, led by an unlikely cast of characters, starring possible renaissance revival candidate Dion Waiters (who may actually be a reincarnation of, ironically enough, Dallas Mavericks OJ Mayo.) The hard question this winning streak brings up is: which face of this Jekyll & Hyde act is the real Heat? The reality of the situation is probably somewhere in between, which puts the Heat somewhere between 10th to 7th in the East, also known as no mans land. Advanced statistics support this as well, Goran, Waiter, Whiteside as a 3 man unit have been bad together, but multiple permutations of 2 man combinations of those 3 have been very good on the court. The combination just doesn’t have a lot of synergy together. Add onto that the high probability of ~~Mayo~~ Waiters getting an overpay this offseason by a team looking for a young bench scorer & it becomes even harder to imagine this team sustaining this high of a level of play with its’ current core. The converse to that arguement however is health. Josh Richardson, who looked like an absolute star in the making last season has been dealing with knee & foot injuries all year while high draft pick Justice Winslow has apparently signed up for the Marcus Smart health plan for Rookies & Sophomores. Richardson & possibly Winslow (if his shot ever stops being a liability) would surely prop up the Heat & sure up their defense.
There is A LOT to like about the Miami Heat as we’ll see soon. But things aren’t exactly smooth sailing back to the top.
For the Dallas Mavericks, the writing was clear on the wall, a 3 seed team in a young and upcoming conference being dragged through the playoffs by a twilight superstar in his last throws,a hodge-podge of 3 point sharpshooter who got hot at just the right time & a few diners club card holding stars trying to give it one last go before the move to Boca.While the precipitous decline of the Dallas Mavericks could have been predicted with quite a high degree of accuracy, the too were dealt their fair share of god awful luck. The flashpoint for that luck will be tagged by many as June 29, 2015. While the DJ chronicles no doubt set the franchise back a huge amount, the rotten luck in the gamble on Chandler Parsons indirectly negatively influenced just about every event that occurred afterwards. These two unfortunate turn of events led the Mavericks to clogging up their books with players like Wes Matthews & Deron Williams, & trading away great young talent & picks for the likes of post ACL repair too smart for the NBA Rajon Rondo. All in an attempt to give Dirk one last score, to allow him to go out more like Tim Duncan& MJ, less like Kobe or worse, Pierce. Now they find themselves in this strange situation we see before ourselves today.
Like the Heat, The Mavericks started the season out very poorly and have propped up those numbers by lighting on fire in the past few weeks, also like the Heat, they’ve been propped up by an unlikely cast of characters, starring a guy who couldn’t stick on the Brooklyn Nets roster. The Mavericks young guys also come from very low pedigree. Outside of Harrison Barnes, who is likely the best player on both teams, their next highest drafted player was non-lotto pick Justin Anderson.
While the Mavericks seem to be in a very similar position to the Heat right now, there are a lot of subtle intricacies that make the paths these two will take back to the top fairly different.
Before I jump into the nitty gritty, I’m going to lay out the situation a bit more clearly

Miami Heat

Depth Chart
Contracts
Picks
538 projections
BBallRef projections
LAY OUT ROSTERS FOR NEXT SEASON AS OF NOW
SPECIAL SITUATION:
CHRIS BOSH

The Miami Heat will very likely be applying for special injury exception in the next few months or so(as outlined here), which will pull Bosh’s money off the books and instantly reopen a huge amount of space for Pat to play with, if he so chooses.

Dallas Mavericks

Depth Chart
Contracts
Picks
538 projections
BBallRef projections
LAY OUT ROSTERS FOR NEXT SEASON AS OF NOW
SPECIAL SITUATION:
DIRK RETIRING* or opting out:

The strong possibility of Dirk retiring (or opting out) this offseason which takes his contract commitment off the books & allows the Mavericks a not so insignificant amount of cap space to play with. Dirk can then hang 'em up, or resign a 1 year max deal after that allowing Dallas to add a big time free agent & Dirk to get yet another big pay day.

U25 Player Ranking:

Barnes
---
---
Richardson
Winslow
Anderson
Yogi
Johnson
Finney-Smith
Brussino
White

A note regarding this season, the 2017 draft, & 'tanking'
If you look at the middle 1/3 of the NBA standings you will note that it is incredibly packed, more so than it has been in a long time. The NBA middle class is thriving while there are fewer cellar-dwellers & contenders than there have been at any point this decade. Now, that speaks to the quality of the league to some extent, but it also shows that there is a very solid niche to be taken advantage of, should a GM jump at the chance. This draft is SOLID. One of the best drafts in years. & while the draft seems very deep, the top of the draft also looks to be amazing with as many as 5 franchise quality point guards & a few other very high quality wings that could serve as the ideal pieces to plug into a rebuilding squad. That is where these current, potentially unsustainable improvements in play hurt the Mavs & Heat (as fun as it is to watch). The top of the draft seems like it's filled with more surefire players while the middle of the lottery is filled with high ceiling potential projects & low ceiling peak role players.
Unlike the playoff race where the in at the beginning of the season are far less important than wins in the later months as things get tight, wins&losses in the first half of the season often play the most important role in determining lottery odds because good teams are more prone to give up bad losses that they wouldn't otherwise sacrifice come crunch time.
These winning streaks are a blast to watch right now. But they may come back to bite the organizations come May. Fultz/Smith/Jackson look like they may be franchise type players & while Bridges& Rabb look like nice pieces, they're certainly a downgrade.
While I may have painted a gloomy picture of these two franchises futures, there are lots of reasons to believe there is a bright light at the end of each teams respective tunnel.
Both teams are fortunate enough to possess great leadership from ownership all the way down to head coach. As long as Mickey Arison, Pat Riely, Erik Spoelstra, Marc Cuban(despite all his eccentricities), Don Nelson, & Rick Carlisle are all kept in place, you can bet things will be looking up sooner rather than later. Now that is no guarantee to be sure. Pat Riley is 71 years old & could retire at anytime, Carlisle is arguably the best coach outside San Antonio & following the Doc Rivers model is not too far outside the realm of possibilities, & despite a strong track record, his insistence in putting his fingerprints all over his franchise coupled with his eccentricity& lack of real basketball expertise could lead Cuban into making Ranadive/Larry Lucchino moves without strong management to call him on his decisions.
On top of great management & ownership & coaching (which is an incredibly rare combination for a team to possess) Dallas & Miami also have a few more cards up their sleeves that few franchises possess:

Warm Weather
A night life
A big market
No income tax
See point 3

These are huge free agent draws, especially 4, these teams can essentially offer any player more money than many other franchises without effecting their cap & free agents can be assured that they’ll be placed in a stable environment with competent leadership, a paycheck, something to do at night, & a market to take advantage of.
Barring those (somewhat) unlikely GM/Coach flight scenarios I touched on above, these teams are in a good spot because of that. Look back at the bottom of the standings for the past decade or so, there is a STRONG correlation between frequency of appearance & managerial aptitude. Sure good management loses, but they seem to bounce back to a competent team fairly quickly, contrast that with more poorly run teams, they constantly appear in the mix for bottom 5 year in & year out.
Both teams also possess a nice mix of oldein their prime talent coupled with really nice young prospects. What this affords them is a modicum of flexibility. Sure they’re both locked into somewhat exorbitant contracts but both teams, depending on their willingness to compromise, have the ability to go young & build around their prospects or try to get some more (closer to) competition ready type players for a quick retooling.
I polled a lot of people on twitter trying to get a general consensus on how most fans felt about each organization going forwards,a vast majority said Miami had the clearer path, I'm personally not so sure it is that clear cut.
Now on the surface it looks like Miami is in better shape going forward, the have to good prime players that could yield a decent return as well as 3 very good prospects to build around. Contrast that to Dallas whose only real good talent is Harrison Barnes (who may be the best player on both teams, but still) & Wes Matthews on an albatross of a contract. Whether Justin Anderson is good or not remains to be seen, but in season 2 he is currently third at his position in the depth chart. Yogi has been a flash in the pan, but it remains to be seen if he is just this years New York Knicks Jeremy Lin, or if he’s the next Isaiah Thomas (or likely something in between). Finley-Smith & Brussino have both looked good enough to be players on this roster going forward, but neither have shown me that they belong in the Johnson/Richardson stratosphere. Winslow has been an interesting case, with likely the highest ceiling of any young player on either team, he has absolutely struggled with consistency, injuries, & shooting seemingly from the get go. At times he looks like he could be something very special, at other times he looks like a pure defensive wing specialist in the vein every fan in Boston/Carolina fears Smart/MKG may end up.
Where Dallas really recoups is picks, in that they actually own theirs. unlike Miami who has owed to Phoenix an unprotected first in 2021, and a top-seven protected first in 2018 which turns into a unprotected first in 2019 if not conferred, for the acquisition of Goran Dragic. Both teams own their picks in this upcoming deep draft class, & with a strong pick history, their odds are high that they’ll add another talented prospect this off season (with a potential mid to hi lotto pick), although the current winning revival both teams are experiencing may be counterproductive to the cause. Missing picks in 2017 could severely hinder the Miami Heats efforts to attempt a rebuild. Their best hopes in a rebuild are to try to recoup some of the value lost in acquiring Goran (which will be difficult to do) & thinking really hard about trying to move Whiteside for what should be a decent return. As I outlined above, Dallas is in a much worse spot concerning current assets, they have very little by way of talent to retool around & as far as movable assets to finance a rebuild Barnes(who I would not advocate moving), Matthews, Bogut, & DWill are all they really have.
There are a couple of general ways that each of these franchises can attempt to steer their respective ships. Obviously there are a thousand variations on a theme and gray areas between each category as 28 other teams fluidly change the landscape of the NBA in each passing moment, but the generalize themes lay a pretty solid ground work. They could also go out & make very bad moves (for example trading for Ibaka & signing Jeff green, Augusitin, Watson, & Biyumbo on a clearly very young team with a center) but I trust in the management of these teams enough to not believe that they would do such a thing. I am therefore going to only lay out smart(ish) plans. For an idea on the style check out my Wizards breakdown
*To start, I should say that both plans are predicated upon Chris Bosh being waived via the injury exception & Dirk Nowitzki retiring (or opting out) at seasons end. That clears up a lot of room for each team to work with.

Dallas Mavericks

Go young
The Moves:
Trade Bogut/ DWill (if possible) for literally anything young that you can get, if you can’t, let them walk Try to move Wes without giving up too much to do so. It may be incredibly difficult to move Wes & sitting on his contract won’t be the end of the world. But freeing up that money & minutes for the young guys should be the goal. Wes is exactly the type of player that a contender makes a desperate move to grab at the deadline in the next few seasons to try & sure up wing depth.
Potential Rotation:
Yogi/Wes Mathews (probably)/Finney-Smith/Barnes/Powell Curry/Anderson/Brussino/Mejri + this years pick & a few prospects from trades
The good: This team is YOUNG and there’s some solid pieces here going forward. Also future lottery picks may come up big here.
The bad: This team is particularly bad. There are no real big men here & Barnes is the only player with real flashes of star potential to be seen.
Go young(ish)
The Moves: Same as above but, with much more focus on moving Wes, even if it means moving prospects to get teams to bite. -this has the dual benefit of opening up a ridiculous amount of cap space and greatly increasing this years lottery odds.
Potential Rotation:
Yogi/Monk/Barnes/Powell/Noel Curry/Anderson & bench depth
The good: This team is good again right away, probably getting better with time too. This is probably my personal favorite as the Mavs don’t really lose anything other than pick equity, they compete immediately & have an improving team going forward.
The bad: This free agency class is pretty weak & Dallas will probably have to overpay to get any real additions to their roster that fit their age window at all.
Go (crazy) young
The Moves: Same as go young, but trade Barnes for prospects as well
Potential Rotation:
Top 3 point guard from draft/ Anderson/ Finney-Smith/ top prospect from trade/ Powell Bench of a mix of current players under contract & young guys you make bets on + picks.
The good: This team should get some very good prospects out of the deal, teams like Boston( who loved him early on & even tried to move Pierce for him straight up allegedly) or Denver would likely shell out for a player like Barnes. Also again, lottery picks
The bad: Congrats guys the Nets are no longer the worst team in basketball.

The Heat

Re-up
The Moves: Ride together, die together
Potential Rotation:
-Dragic/ Waiters/ Richardson/ Player signed with Bosh money (Ibaka?)/ Whiteside -Tyler Johnson/ Winslow/ this years pick/Ellington/Reed/White
Congratulation the future of your franchise now rests on the shoulders of Dion Waiters
The good: This team will at least be fun to watch (maybe in a Bulls/Knicks/Kings kind of way?) Also signing someone like Ibaka, who may be the most similar player in the league skill set wise to Chris Bosh, allows you to replicate the team that Pat Riley probably originally envisioned.
The bad: You probably just overpaid Dion Waiters, so, your team rests on Waiters, older Tragic, & Whiteside from here on out Also you’re blocking 2 or three of your best prospects from the court going forward, so you may end up trading them for an in their prime forward.
Go young
The Moves: Try to recoup what you can for Dragic, dangle out Waiters & Whiteside see whats on the table
Potential Rotation: -(Smith/Monk/Isaac/Jackson/Tatum)/ Tyler johnson/Jrich/Winslow/Whiteside -Ellington/Reed/White
The good: This team gets a little bit of the best of both worlds, picks, youth, & a huge trade chip in Whiteside going forward because there isn’t a huge rush to move him after this season because the Heat don’t own their own picks. This also opens a lot of space for the Heat to try to hit on a free agent in the next 2 offseason
The bad: Whiteside might keep their heads above water & tank their pick this season & may significantly hurt his trade value if he regresses.
Go (crazy) young
The Moves: -Move Whiteside, Dragic, Waiters, for as much value as you can get tank & take advantage of the pick that you do own
Potential Rotation:
-(Smith/Monk/Isaac/Jackson/Tatum) / Tyler johnson/Jrich/Winslow/Reed/White
The good: This team digs themselves out of their equity hole, has a fun young team with a bunch of chips going forward
The bad: This team won’t be good unless the player they draft this year is a hit right away. Without those picks they sent to Phoenix, they’re essentially trapped in the same hole Brooklyn currently finds themselves digging out of.

Conclusion:

So I started this article by outlining the seemingly incredibly similar situation these two teams have found themselves in yet again after clashing in 2011. In ending, I have shown that, while on the surface their situations look incredibly similar, if you dig a little deeper you can see that these two paths are likely going to diverge quite radically yet again in the not so distant future.
As I had said, I had talked to a lot of very intelligent people about which team had the clearer path & brighter future going forward & resoundingly ‘Miami’ was given as the answer. I however am not so sure. Miami most certainly has more options going forward as a re-up is easier & results in a better team than anything Dallas could cobble together this offseason, & Miami probably has better prospects currently than Dallas does. But Dallas controls their own destiny in a way that Miami does not, Dallas has multiple draft picks going forward, the best player on both teams & in having less options, they also have less chances to make huge mistakes & get trapped on the treadmill of mediocrity.
But who knows, maybe both teams will elect to follow the same path & maybe they’ll lock horns again in the 2021 NBA finals.

References:

Dirk Article Bosh Article Sporttrac.com NBATankathon.com basketball-reference.com HoopsHype.com RealGM.com (Ryan Bernardoni)(aka @dangercart) WIZ ARTICLE BROOKLYN ARTICLE
Edits & Notes by: @SamSheehan , give him a follow on Twitter

CreateYoureReality NBA Analysis and Picks 3/19

Last Post Recap: Singles (8-5, +7.5U) Parlay(1-2, -4.24U) BBDLS (0-2, -1.5U)
Recap: Ayyyye! Back in the win column! Our biggest losers were props and biggest winners game plays. The opposite of how February was going. I guess I really lucked out yesterday when DraftKings only allowed me to put 4.5 Units on the Curry/Klay promo. I was going to put 10U on it!! I mean I was predicting an under for GS and a SA win with cousins out, but I thought that would lead to more 3 point shooting from Klay and Curry giving them easy opportunities to cover 15. Klay did go 4-9 from 3 giving us 12 points but he went 1-9 from everywhere else and didnt even make it to the free throw line for a total of 14 points Oh well! Blessed that DK saved us 5.5U!! :D
Small slate today, lets hop right in!

Analysis:
PHL/CHA: Hmm, PHL is on a 4 game win streak and is coming off an upset of the Bucks, On the road! CHA just finished up a 4 game road trip, 1-3. PHL is 3-0 against CHA this year, but has only won by a COMBINED total of 6 points... Embid is ruled out tonight for rest and everyone for CHA seems healthy except for Zeller who is also out. TP is also out, but he isnt much of a contributor anyway. Just looking at the records and H2H record you would assume philly is the favorite so why did this open at CHA -1.5? I know its flipped to PHL -1.5 but that seems like it would be due to public, not sharps. however... its still 11am so how many public bettors have made their wagers yet? This one is a little curious to me so ill probably just take the home team to get the upset if I decide to play it. I may wait until game time hoping the public pushes it up more in my favor. No lines yet, but if you play DFS I would look to Kaminsky to overproduce his Salary. Also, Marvin Williams is very under priced based upon his recent production and this might be a spot for him to get back to his numbers. The second time I look at this game I have trouble seeing CHA scoring 100. With the 15-20 points that they get from Zeller and TP gone they still need 25 from Walker and 20 from Williams and 15 from Kaminsky and a combined 40 from Lamb and Batum against a PHL team that is a PACE up spot for CHA, but only really plays poor defense against the C/pf position (which Embid is sitting from tonight) but Zeller isnt in to take advantage. That leaves Bismack and his biggest game was 11 pts 4 rbds against the small interior of WAS. This has me leaning away from sides and more toward CHA TT. Also, I dont have lines for it but when Boban plays more than 20 mins for PHL he is a double double machine. He should get a ton of minutes tonight with Embid out.

HOU/ATL: HOU has been killing it lately (they did play close games against PHX and DAL) winning 11 out of 12. ATL is almost eliminated from playoff contention but is still playing each game with effort. I like HOU to win but ATL hasn lost by more than 7 in any of their last 8 home games. Im quite torn in this one. ATL is horrible at D and HOU should eat. But my model is telling me this is closer to ATL +3? Should be an interesting one to watch but ill probably stay away from the spread.

GS/MIN: GS was good and bad to use yesterday. They lost and went under their TT as predicted but fell one Klay basket short of a really nice day for us. They are on a road back2back and Cousins has been upgraded from out to questionable but is still expected to rest his ankle. MIN, on a 3 game losing streak, is slowly falling out of their playoff race as it looks like the Clippers aren't slowing down. Honestly I am leaning towards a GS win and cover. But there is a universe where I see MIN claiming an upset. If Cousins sits and GS puts up another poor offensive showing(which I think was due more to the spurs D than the GS O playing poorly) and KAT drops 40+, I could see MIN winning a low scorer. But Id say thats closer to 10-15% whereas GS WandC is more like 55%. There was news after last nights game of DG discussing the back2back but it looked like the news made it out to be more than he was talking about. "Draymond calls out the NBA" I have this as 105-111 So i am curious to see how it shakes out.

LAL/MIL: The Lakers have fully disappointed this month going 1-8. But, since beating the Lakers in LA at the beginning of the month, the Bucks have gone a very uncharacteristic 4-4. I have this one as MIL -9.5 so it looks like Vegas is slightly favoring the home team to hop back on track. I guess seeing LA lose to the Knicks has Vegas losing all confidence in them.

BK/SAC: BK is 0-3 over the last week recently losing a close one to the Clippers. SAC is having struggles of its own going 3-5 this month with TWO of those wins coming against the Knicks. I have this at -3 and Vegas has it at -3/4. I dont know why yet but if I can find a valid stat to back it up, I am really thinking BK SU here. Ill see what i can find.

IND/LAC: The Pacers are 0-2 on this 4 game road trip and are on a B2B. The Clippers are 7-1 this month and have their sights set on the playoffs. I have this one at -3 and Vegas is pretty close, favoring the Clippers slightly more. I agree with them as the recent trends show LA is the stronger competitor.

EXTRA: Draftkings has another alluring odds boost today. It is HOU and MIL to both win ~~-200~~ replaced with (+200) odds. Again, this feels like a slam dunk, but DK is pretty good about putting up really enticing odds as a promo but rarely paying them. I think over the last few months I have bet an odds boost promo 5 or 6 times, only to be payed on 2. However, you are almost always getting + odds so I have yet to find out how profitable they are until i play a ton more. I am going to go with this promo tonight, but it does make me consider whom they think might get upset out of HOU and MIL tonight. I have the ATL line at +3 and Vegas is +7.5 usually that means they are balancing out for the sharps, but occasionally it means they are leaving themselves exposed in a spot where they favor the heavy majority of public money on one side. I may cover this play by hedging a ml parlay with either ATL or LAL. (EW I said stay away from LA, lol) ***bron and GF ruled out, may put in a late LAL parlay to cover my action on the DK promo***

Something else I have been looking into recently in my late night obscure NBA thoughts bubble is when Vegas changes the obscure lines like game to go into overtime. Its usually around +1400/+1500. But when they adjust it down to below 14 or above 16, does that reflect Vegas' algorithm saying the computer favors the underdog or favorite respectively? Its something Im going to keep an eye on just to see what happens. If anyone is curious, DK has CHA, MIN, and BK at +1300 while the others are between 14 and 15 with MIL game all the way up to +1900. Does the DK algorithm favor the underdogs in those matchups? Lets keep an eye on this as the season wraps up. Could be something to add into next years analysis.

Went with more props today. Not too many spreads I want to ride.

Today's Singles (Overall Total: 157-140-1, +51.75U)

BK ml (+140) ---2U to win 2.8U
LAC ml (-180) --- 1.8U to win 1U
John Collins 9.5RBDs Over (1.3U to win 1U)
Draymond Green 6.5 PTS Over (1.5U to win 1U)
Willie Cauley-Stein 10.5 PTs Over( 1.3u to win 1U)
Willie Cauley-Stein 8.5 RBDs Over (1.4U to win 1U)
D'Angelo Russell 6.5 AST Over (1.5U to win 1U)
Myles Turner 13.5 PTs Over (2.6U to win 2U)
Myles Turner 7.5 RBDs Over (2.5U to win 2U)
Darren Collison 13.5 PTs Over (1.2U to win 1U)
Darren Collison 6.5 ASTs Over (1.1U to win 1U)

Basic Parlay(22-45, -11.94U) and BIG BOY DADDY LONG SHOT PARLAY (1-31, -7U)
Basic: ***Sidenote there is a promo this week, all parlays over 4 teams that dont have a -300 or longer if all legs but 1 hit, I get refunded my bet***

\DK Promo\ HOU and MIL mls (+200) ---4U to win 8U**
BK +9.5, HOU -3.5, LAC +4.5, PHL +5.5 (2.5U to win 7.5U) **If 3 out of 4 hit, I get my money back\**
Experiment parlay with the OT #s analysis: CHA +6.5, MIN+11.5, BK+9, HOU -3, LAC +3.5 (1U to win 4.4U) \* Also qualifies for the 3 our of 4 money back promo.***
GS ml, LAC ml, Hou ml (2U to win 3.6U)

BBDLS:

**Balance to the MIL/LA news** LAL ml, Turner 7.5 RBDs Over, BK ml, GS 239.5 U (1U to win 32.3U) If 3 out of 4 hit, I get my bet back.

Thanks for reading, and good luck to all! :D

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NBA Prop Report 2/9. More Benny Ricciardi - Feb 09, 2021, 3:30 PM EST. FTN's Brad Evans breaks down some of his favorite player prop bets for the Conference Championship Round of the NFL playoffs. Tipico Sportsbook Top Props for Sunday's games. Fade Five: Green Akers to have backers rolling in dollars Bet the Prop is your home for prop bet analysis, content, and free picks, covering NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Tennis, Golf, & EPL. Only five games on the NBA slate tonight, the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets are both looking to pull off a two-game sweep tonight, The Brooklyn Nets 3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/4/21: Nikola Jokic is taking on the Lakers' stingy defense. Will he still get to the over on his points prop? Read it now on numberFire, your #1 NBA Best Bets College Football Best Bets College Basketball Best Bets MLB Best Bets NHL Best Bets XFL Best Bets Betting Odds. NFL Odds Best NFL Playoffs Prop Bet for Buccaneers vs. Saints: Godwin Catches On. NFL. 3:28PM . Sun 17th January 2021 . NFL. 3:28PM NBA Player Prop Bets Miami Heat, Goran Dragic. The Prop: Over 4.5 assists (+125) Game 4 will forever be known as the Tyler Herro Game as he electrified the Celtics with 37 points off the bench, the most ever by any rookie not named Magic Johnson this late in the playoffs. The over on Herro’s points prop hit midway through the second quarter NBA prop bets are pretty popular at sportsbooks after the regular season comes to an end. Although there are a number of different prop bets available throughout the season, the most coveted are NBA Finals prop bets as online gambling sites generally tend to introduce all sorts of new variations that aren’t available at any other time. Particularly popular are the NBA Finals player prop bets Top 5 NBA Playoffs 2020 Futures Bets Bucks – Win Eastern Conference (-165 at BetMGM) Prop bets are especially popular for NBA games. Futures Betting. Series Winner: This NBA futures bet involves a full playoff series between two teams, and thus has just two options. If the Bucks and Magic meet in Round 1 of the NBA playoffs, the winner is NBA Player Prop Bets Miami Heat, Tyler Herro. The Prop: Over 14.5 points (-106) The Celtics won Game 3, but Tyler Herro was awesome for the Heat and continues to look like a rookie gem and X-factor off the bench. Herro took more shots than any Heat player in Game 3, hitting 4-of-12 3s and scoring 22 of Miami’s 28 bench points. NBA playoffs betting is probably some of the most exciting in all of basketball. The best teams in the league battle it out in an attempt to make it to the NBA Championship with online gambling sites introducing all sorts of interesting NBA playoff series betting lines. Many of these unique betting odds for NBA playoffs are not available at any other time of year.

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After cashing one out of his two player prop picks in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Jordan Sharp is back with one big team NBA betting prop on Gam... Paul Bovi joins Gabe Morency to discuss NBA Playoffs, in-game live props & other bets to take advantage of in the current post-pandemic landscape, plus Bovi ... Dylan Burd analyzes the NBA slate for Friday, February 12, 2021, giving you his player props for the 11 games. For the next part of the show, he answers ques... After hitting on two of his three NBA prop picks from Bovada sportsbook, Jordan Sharp is back with two more prop picks on the loan Saturday NBA playoff game,...

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TL;DR

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teams that will be worse than their current record

CreateYoureReality NBA Analysis and Picks 3/31

Miami & The Mavericks: Two franchises cross paths once again.

Miami Heat

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks

The Heat

Conclusion:

References:

CreateYoureReality NBA Analysis and Picks 3/19

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NBA Player Prop Bets - Friday 2/12/21 - YouTube