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 | Just saw this article and i would like to share it with you guys and see what you think. submitted by duvanduque to RobinHoodPennyStocks [link] [comments] Supercom: Explosive Potential, Limited DownsideFeb. 03, 2021 8:00 AM ETSuperCom Ltd. (SPCB) Summary
Our long thesis can be summarized as follows: Business Segment Details:Supercom’s IoT division provides electronic offender monitoring and tracking (“EM”). Supercom entered the space with the acquisition of Leaders in Community Alternatives (LCA) on January 1, 2016 for $2.9mm. At the time, this division did $9.0mm in sales and provided the Company a vital presence in California. We note the revenue run-rate of this division was impaired by the staggered shutdown of the courts throughout 2020. Without the courts operating on schedule, there are fewer cases approved for EM. We believe court closures will be less frequent in 2021 and the burgeoning growth prospects for EM in the U.S. will be more apparent. Historically the Company won 65% of bids in Europe despite reduced sales and marketing efforts. The Company’s success rate is due to its superior technology (i.e. longer battery life of 1-3 years compared to 1-2 days for competitors; seamless communication with the phone; biometric authentication) and strong word of mouth. Supercom earns a $3-4 daily rate for its devices depending on configuration and carries a 70% gross margin. The Company also earns a servicing fee of $12-25 per day in California based on an income sliding scale which delivers 30-40% gross margins. We expect the Company to roll-up/acquire more servicing companies in other U.S. geographies to create a fully integrated model/offering. As a note, most of Supercom’s contract wins range between 20-200 units in the initial six months of the contract. With a better capitalized balance sheet, we are optimistic Supercom would be well positioned to successfully bid on large potential contracts with thousands of units in the first stage, creating a paradigm shift for its operations.The Company’s e-Gov division provides governments with a comprehensive, end-to-end solution for the deployment and management of secure government identity programs (i.e. passports, driver’s license, etc.). Supercom’s solutions are deployed across over 20 countries. The Company has shifted away from this business as all major deployment and implementation projects have been completed. Currently, this division generates a modest level of high margin, recurring revenues through consumable sales, software licenses as well as maintenance and support services. These recurring revenues generally last over ten years from the initial deployment. We do not expect this business to be a meaningful contributor to growth in the foreseeable future. The Company’s Cyber Security division was created following two acquisitions. Supercom bought Prevision for $1.1mm in November 2015 and Safend for minimal working capital out of bankruptcy in March 2016. The Cyber Security division benefits from synergistic technologies and a shared customer base with its other divisions, creating strong cross-selling opportunities. We expect this business segment to become a greater focus for the company once its EM division matures further given the threats facing data integrity and strategic assets. Coronavirus Tracking – One Massive Near-term Opportunity Worth Monitoring:Supercom announced five (5) pilots to countries in the Middle East, Central and South America for coronavirus quarantine home containment in 2020. While none of the pilots have materialized into a formal, large scale contract, news is gaining momentum in the Company’s backyard, Israel. Due to various segments of Israel’s population blatantly disregarding quarantine rules and its inability to contain the virus to-date despite a highly touted vaccination program, the discussion to utilize the Supercom’s technology has intensified. Israelis are known to be avid travelers, bringing variations of the virus back home with them. To combat this problem, Israel has shut its borders to all travelers over the past week, even its own citizens seeking to return. This is clearly not a long-term solution despite Israelis refusing to stay isolated in coronavirus hotels (on the state’s dime) or abide by mandated travel restrictions once home. Many view the GPS tracking option to be a strong alternative to minimize the spread of the virus from abroad and to enforce fines on those travelers disregarding the rules.It seems like Israel will make a critical decision in the coming weeks whether it will require these devices on returning travelers. If approved, this will represent the biggest contract in Supercom’s history and immediately lift the Company into the stratosphere. To illustrate the magnitude of the opportunity, nearly 5 million travelers passed thru the main airport in 2020, despite the coronavirus pandemic. Given the recent normalization of ties with other countries (i.e. UAE, Morocco, Bahrain, etc.), it seems that Israelis are even more motivated to travel. In the event of approval, we would caution investors that government approval to impose GPS trackers on its citizens would face numerous legal challenges. The government did approve tracing Israelis on their phones in order to alert people who had come into contact with the coronavirus under a temporary special coronavirus surveillance power. Traditional EM Opportunity:Excluding corona-related opportunities, the market potential for Supercom’s traditional EM solution is enormous and we expect this business unit to provide a stable, recurring, high-growth engine for the next several years. In the last five weeks of 2020, the Company announced the securing of 4 separate EM projects in the U.S. and the commencement of another project in Latvia. We expect additional contract wins are forthcoming.The tailwinds for this business are unlikely to abate in the U.S, especially under Democratic leadership, or abroad in the near-future. The primary drivers include prison overcrowding, a shift toward decriminalizing drug use, a reduction in recidivism as well as substantial cost savings for the penal system. One of Biden’s first executive orders was to eliminate the Justice Department’s use of private prisons. We foresee the cost-benefit analysis of shifting toward EM solutions will become a widely supported trend worldwide. Supercom provides all the essential hardware and software for the EM market including the phone, bracelet and house unit. In Europe, the Company’s customers generally use the house unit whereas in the U.S., the phone is more widely provided. The Company has publicly disclosed contracts in Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Bulgaria, Sweden, Estonia and Latvia in Europe and various local/municipal agencies in the U.S. While the Company has enjoyed early success capturing business in Europe by beating out incumbent providers, the U.S. seems to have the most upside potency for the Company. Either way, provided the current size of the Company, any meaningful contract wins will move the growth needle. Hyper Growth Ahead:After a covid impacted 2020, we believe results will bounce back sharply in 2021 and beyond with accelerating results factoring the above discussed tailwinds in its largest business. While the company has impressively rightsized its operations (headcount reductions, etc.) for its current business trends, we expect the Company to capitalize on the burgeoning EM opportunity ahead of it by boosting its manpower and resources. This may create cash flow deficits in the quarters to come. Nonetheless, we have strong confidence investors will reward Supercom with a higher valuation once its strong growth potential/profile becomes more apparent. If successful, the Company will be able to readily tap the capital markets to shore up its balance sheet which will inevitably lead to bigger contract opportunities. https://preview.redd.it/7lswezudxpf61.png?width=443&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6a8ac7fc365ca76e8c67b07db142115687375bc Source: Company Filings and Sabra Capital Research Note: Excludes share-based compensation and amortization Given the strong business mix and visibility, the Company’s run-rate revenue is on the cusp of a multi-year revival in our opinion. We conservatively forecast $20.2mm and $27.0mm in revenues for 2021 and 2022, respectively. Pro-forma gross margins will follow the same path and exceed 60% as economies of scale work in the Company’s favor with increased size. We are optimistic Supercom will return to timely reporting which will make a small contribution toward improved investor confidence. Successive reported quarters of accelerating revenue growth will be a larger contributor. Massive Upside:We conclude that Supercom’s current trading level provides a compelling entry point considering its improving fundamentals and efforts to regain credibility. For the past three years, investors have been frustrated with an apathetic management team that drifted from standard reporting and regular earnings conference calls. In fact, Supercom has yet to file its annual report on time since 2015. The last two years were especially abhorrent with filings in the last 30 days of the following year. These factors have contributed to a large and persistent discount on its shares to forgotten status. However, we believe the new CEO is energized to resolve these issues promptly and permanently. Provided the Company’s compelling prospects, market positioning and industry tailwinds, we contend the risk at these levels is limited and view the equity as a multi-bag story in its infancy. If management executes on its strategy and the growth story materializes, we are confident investors will reward the Company with significant multiple expansion.With expanding market multiples across the board, it is difficult to unearth asymmetric opportunities such as Supercom. At 2.0x trough estimated 2021 sales, Supercom is a cheap growth vehicle. Additionally, Supercom has morphed into a predictable business model with recurring revenues and high gross margins. Similar businesses fetch revenue multiples well into the mid-single digits. Based on a similar revenue multiple of 4.5x forecasted 2023 sales of $35mm, Supercom is worth ~$7.00 per share. As investor confidence in the story builds, we would not be surprised with additional multiple expansion. Of course, a large contract would accelerate its path toward our price target and justify a higher price. As such, we are confident in establishing Supercom as a 33% position. Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4402829-supercom-explosive-potential-limited-downside |
Bulgaria Abolishes Mandatory Quarantine for Some EU Countries. June 19, 2020. Subscribe to our daily news digest. The Bulgarian Ministry of Health has decided to put an end to the mandatory quarantine for persons arriving in Bulgaria from Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, San Marino, Andorra, Monaco and the Vatican City State. The requirement for a 10-day quarantine remains in place. From 11 January, all international arrivals to England and Scotland are required to present a negative COVID-19 test taken up to 72 hours prior to departure. From 4 January Romania removes the 14-day quarantine and the PCR test requirement for travelers entering from Bulgaria. As of June 15, the 14-day quarantine upon entering Bulgaria is lifted for citizens of Spain, Italy, Malta and Ireland. The directors of the Regional Health Inspectorates have to revoke the quarantine prescribed for arrivals from these countries between June 2 and June 14. The requirement for 14-day quarantine remains in force for all arrivals from the UK, Sweden, Belgium, Portugal, as well as from all countries of the third category except for Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro An earlier version of the restrictions order, issued in November 2020, also allowed for quarantine to be lifted after a negative PCR test result, but the provision was dropped in last week’s order. The ministry did not give a reason for its U-turn on the issue. In other news related to Covid-19 in Bulgaria: Sofia mayor Yordanka Fandukova said that more than 5000, about 20 per cent of the PCR Testing/Quarantine: Starting January 29, 2021, travelers must present a negative result from a negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test done within 72 hours before entering Bulgaria. The PCR test document must include the full name of the traveler as per the identification document that person is travelling with; the name, address, and contact of the laboratory that executed the PCR test; and, the date and form of testing (PCR). Acting on the orders of Foreign Minister Ekaterina Zaharieva, Bulgaria’s embassy in London has sent a note to the UK government asking why Bulgaria has been excluded from the list of countries for which quarantine requirements for arrivals in Britain are being lifted as of July 10. Bulgaria Latest News: Updated entry and quarantine requirements through 30 April (OSAC, 28.01.2021) Government to make all incoming travelers take COVID-19 tests (Yahoo News, 25.01.2021). Bulgarian government to permit resumption of flights from the U.K. from 23 December (Reuters, 23.12.2020). Bulgaria announces they will be restricting air travel to/from Bulgaria and the UK from 00:00 on 21
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