B. Confidence Intervals for the Risk Ratio (Relative Risk)

relative risk confidence interval formula excel

relative risk confidence interval formula excel - win

Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Reviews For Weight Loss | Warning! Must Read This Before Try!

Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Reviews For Weight Loss | Warning! Must Read This Before Try!
Welcome to the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Review 2021, In this review Reddit we will discuss every feature of the Reddit Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Reviews 2021 program and see the advantages and disadvantages of each feature.
Looking for Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Reviews 2021 Reddit before making a decision? In this article, we are going to provide you with the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Review 2021 Reddit, And give you a comprehensive detail it.
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Reviews
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic reviews update. Detailed information on where to buy Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic for weight loss, ingredients, pricing, benefits, and much more about Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic.
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic is a 4-in-1 action formula that uses all-natural herbs and other natural ingredients to support a healthy weight loss, support metabolism, support an anti-inflammation response, and maintain healthy digestion. It comes it is a delicious powder that is ridiculously easy to drink. For people who are having a hard time swallowing capsules, this is an excellent supplemental tonic to have. It can help in the overall health of a person in the digestive, mental, cardiovascular, and emotional areas. Thus, Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic isn't much about the flat-belly only and about our body's wellness as a whole.
Must Read & Watch: Top Nutritionists Are Stunned on How Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic works. Learn more by clicking here =>>
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic is like a supplement, except that it’s in powder form. Thus, it is more effectively absorbed by the body than traditional medicinal pills and other weight-loss supplements. It is a mix of natural ingredients that help you eliminate obesity from the core and promote a healthier lifestyle that enables you to reach the long life expectancy similar to Japanese society's culture
With that said, many things need to be told about the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic supplement. Let us take a closer look and try to dissect everything that’s about this blend. Let us read this Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic review to check out the pros and cons of this dietary supplemental masterpiece that almost none have heard of yet due to it being a new player in the market.
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Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Description

Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic is a dietary supplement made with natural ingredients found in different parts of the world. It weighs 82.5 grams and can usually last for 30 days if managed correctly. The recommended dosage of Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic is one teaspoon a day during breakfast, but everyone has different teaspoons, right? As such, the exact recommended dosage is one scoop per day or 2.8 grams. We just put teaspoon as a more comfortable point of reference.
According to the label, Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic can promote healthy weight management, support healthy digestion, and boost energy and vitality.
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic, it is an all-natural, powerful antioxidant formula that can reduce belly fat by supporting a healthy inflammation response to balance out everyday energy levels. This will be further elaborated in the following review below.
It also contains 3-billion Colony Forming Units (CFU) of Lactobacillus Acidophilus, Bacillus Infantis, BifidobacteriumLongum, Lactobacillus Rhamnosus, and L. Reuteri HA-188, all of which good bacteria that aid in better digestion. We’ll dive more into the details of these ingredients later.
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic is a blend of various natural vitamins, fruits, vegetables, herbs, and good bacteria designed to make quick, short work of everything in your body, especially belly fat digestive capabilities.

Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Official Website

Learn More About This Delicious Powder Benefits from The Official Webpage Here =>>
From their website, you can see all other details concerning the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic supplement, including their FAQs, descriptions, benefits, and order details. Of course, we will be doing this comprehensive review on Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic for the benefit of honesty to see if what they’re saying on the website is accurate and how this product can affect your life overall.
One more thing about this website is that you can buy legitimate Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic from the official website only. Items sold outside the online (like eBay and Amazon) and physical avenues (such as Wal-Mart) are considered fake and illegitimate, among all things.
Let’s now jump in this comprehensive Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic review to check if this product is excellent for people like you.
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What Does Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Do?

On paper, you can say that the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic is only focused on weight reduction and other related effects. However, it contains ingredients that are actually useful and beneficial as a whole. This means that Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic does not only make you lose weight fast, but you also achieve a level of healthy living that can make you feel like you’re back in your youth again.
How does this happen? The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic supplement targets body fat's root cause – the CRP or the C-Reactive Protein. According to the website, this C-Reactive Protein actually makes our body go into survival mode by storing our food as fat cells rather than converting it as energy. This is because this C-Reactive Protein activates when our body is stressed with individual factors such as smoke inhalation or other life-threatening factors. This confirms what happens with our body, as pollution is life-threatening enough for our body to enter survival mode.
Thus, more and more body fat accumulates since our body thinks that it needs the extra fat to save ourselves in a time when we’ll need these deposits soon.
However, this life-saving intention of CRP can turn out to be the biggest self-esteem issue on the planet, as people are body-shaming others due to their sheer size. With the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic, we can finally achieve what we want and burn fats into much-needed energy that we need in our everyday errands and life.
When the CRP is neutralized, which this tonic does, we can see changes in our belly fat. We’ll begin to have weight loss, and our fats will be turned into energy. Our body will eventually revert back to what it once was, and the added strength will surely help make our lives better.
What’s more, Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic can make our digestion process better by inducing billions of essential and healthy probiotics for our gastrointestinal tract. It will make our digestion smoother and more manageable, and you will significantly feel less constipation or flatulence thanks to these good bacteria.
Lastly, Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic can effectively reduce the risk of heart diseases and disorders. The fat build-up on our abdomen isn’t strictly contained in that specific part of our body. It can also spread to our internal organs. This is why we have things such as a fatty liver and a fatty heart. Fat deposits can settle outside the heart and constrict it. This can spell disaster for blood vessels that supply oxygen-rich blood to its muscles. If they are tightened well enough, it can lead to heart attacks, which are often fatal.
In general, the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic supplement works to make people lose weight and have an overall better life quality.
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How Do You Take Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic?

You take one teaspoon of it every day before 10:00 in the morning, preferably with your breakfast. Of course, you put it in lukewarm water for the best results. It’s a powdered supplement that is refreshing to taste.

How Does Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Help?

With the things that Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic can do, it can help immensely in several things besides physical improvement and health. For one, your self-esteem can be improved thanks to the weight loss benefits that this tonic supplement brings to the table. You won’t be a target of people who would body shame you out of nowhere, and people would eventually praise you for your overall improvement.
Of course, we aren’t totally after the approval of the people around us. That is only a temporary want that is brought upon our desire for revenge, no matter how subtle that is. What’s important is our mental health. The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic seems to revolve around this message – that lower self-esteem can stem from obesity problems.
While I understand that this sounds like subtle body shaming, trust us, it isn’t. Obesity is indeed something that we need to treat at the soonest possible time. This is because of the complications that stem from obesity. Fat deposits are unknowingly deposited on all our internal organs, making future illnesses hard to control. Thus, Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic helps by also alleviating additional expenses for hard-to-cure conditions currently present in our world.
Thus, even though we haven’t looked into the ingredients that deep yet, we can already see a clear picture of how the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic supplement can effectively give us a well-rounded approach to our life’s road to improvement.
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Who is the Manufacturer of Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic?

The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic was spearheaded by someone named Mike Banner. He is a firefighter from Florida who had a sister who had an acute obesity problem. We’ll dive into this story's details later on, but he got the formula from a Japanese doctor who gave him this natural blend from Okinawa. The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic is a natural blend made by the Japanese people since their ancient tribal times.
Still, that doesn’t give us much about the manufacturer of this great dietary supplement. The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic already seems like the most remarkable nutritional supplement on the planet, yet the manufacturer still remains shrouded in mystery.
We can get from here that the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic was manufactured by the same name. It is made in the USA under a government-registered facility that follows GMP or Good Manufacturing Practices guidelines. That’s pretty much what we can get from them as far as research goes.
With that said, let’s take a further look into the reason why the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic came to be.
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Why Was the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Manufactured?

The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic became a premium dietary supplement because of a brother’s love for his sister. Susan, who was Mike’s sister, fell ill because of cardiovascular issues due to complications of obesity. That’s right. Susan was obese at the time, and she didn’t know that an envelope of fat was hugging her heart, causing her to become prone to heart attacks. She was rushed to the hospital, and there, her brother contacted a Japanese doctor who was a professional in this particular field.
This prompted Mike Banner to use the Japanese doctor’s recommendation just to make his sister better. Over time, Susan showed improvement in her health. She started feeling better, her weight always shed, and her energy levels became off the charts. She started getting happier by the minute and the Susan that Mike knew over the past weeks became the Susan he knew from decades ago.
Thus, Banner started making this supplement for the benefit of everyone. As of the moment, many Americans are using Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic that is extremely helpful for everyone that tries it.
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How Does Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Work?

The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic works by inhibiting the CRP or C-Reactive Protein in our body. This Protein only comes up in our body if we are threatened by certain environmental factors. This includes smoke and pollution. It accumulates in our body and provokes a negative response aiming to eliminate these threats inside our body. However, since these are artificial threats, it cannot be quickly taken down by our body’s natural defenses, and thus it provokes an even worse response than usual. The answer is inflammation and storage of energy in the form of fat cells. With that said, more belly fat accumulates because of this incorrect response. It goes into something that we call survival mode.
By inhibiting CRP, our body can get off this survival mode and begin burning the fat into energy. This is why people who take the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic have higher energy levels than usual. It can give a better life for everyone who wants to have it, with some disclaimers considered, of course. Sometimes, Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic won’t simply work for everyone, and thus several factors still need to be considered. The best way to do this is to consult with your physician about this product before taking it as your constant dietary supplement.
With the reduction of fat, we can expect that our organs will have lesser fat concentrations than before. As mentioned, fat is a detrimental factor to everyone’s health and can lead to further complications – not just backaches and slower pacing. With all those things mentioned, there are also things that the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic can do, such as better digestion, antioxidant levels, and metabolism.
The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic can bring better digestion because it contains lots of probiotics. And probiotic micro-organisms aid in digestion and help people feel better by eliminating the challenging process of repetitive constipation and flatulence, thanks to the unhealthy food we eat daily. Meanwhile, the improvement of metabolism is more of a secondary effect of the CRP inhibition, and thus this is something that can be heavily expected with the supplement at hand.
Lastly, antioxidant levels are given a boost thanks to the polyphenol blend stored inside each granule of this tonic. Antioxidants work by eliminating free radicals in our bodies. Free radicals are things that can harm our body in several ways – more like accumulated toxins as we age by, but not necessarily toxins. These “oxidants” (for a much simpler term) can damage our cells over time, and thus antioxidants are crucial to slow down the aging process. We usually get antioxidants from the healthy food that we eat, but it doesn’t hurt to boost its levels more through supplements that can help our body as a whole.
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How Long Does Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Work?

The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic will confidently work in two weeks. This tonic has natural and powdered elements that make it easily absorbed by our bodies. Moreover, if you want to experience the whole thing from start to finish, it is recommended that you take this supplement for three to six months to see all the changes that can happen to you.
Why this long? It’s because this tonic works gradually and not instantly. Overdosing in these ingredients can bring about worse side effects if taken in a burst. We should not do this since we can damage our body instead of repairing it this way. Thus, three to six months is the right time to keep our body healthy from excess fat. The tonic also has properties that keep our body from succumbing to this obesity crisis, thanks to its antioxidants.
With all these things mentioned about the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic, let us take a closer look at the product's ingredients to assess what this tonic can specifically do for our body’s overall health.
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Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Ingredients

Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic ingredients are natural and numerous at best. This kind of description certainly does not betray the product since it gives other dietary supplements the run for their lives for the number of things packed in every granule of this powerful dietary supplement.
Here are the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic ingredients and their uses to the human body without further ado. It will be divided into four groups for easier understanding.
Polyphenol Blend
As mentioned, Polyphenol is a collective term for antioxidants that are commonly found inside fruits. It is one of the best things that you as a person can possibly have. Not only does it eliminate free radicals inside your blood, but it also boosts your immune system to new heights. Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic’s polyphenol blend is no joke since it contains so much fruit that, when combined, can give you all the benefits you can possibly have from the start.
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic ingredients are the said ingredients:
  • Cherry
  • Carrot
  • Papaya
  • Aronia Berry Extract
  • Green Mango
  • Mulberry
  • European Black Currant Fruit Extract
  • Apple
  • Beet Root
  • Cranberry Fruit Extract
  • Acai Fruit Extract
  • Strawberry
  • Grape Skin Extract
  • Blueberry Fruit Concentrate
  • Pomegranate
  • Blackberry
  • Acerola Fruit Extract
  • Red Raspberry Extract
  • Pineapple Extract
  • Orange
  • Cantelope
  • Grape
  • Watermelon
  • Hibiscus
  • Lemon
  • Peach
Most of the fruits listed here are familiar, but some are not. That’s okay. Upon research, the berries listed here are all beneficial to the human body. They all contain Polyphenols, which is more or less 50 times more powerful than Vitamin C and is a highly effective antioxidant in their own right. These ingredients are what we call the “maintenance” side of the supplement, where without them, the tonic won’t have lasting effects on the body.
This also can revert your body back to what it once was, which is a berry powerhouse. Ancient people actually ate berries at constant intervals back then. These were their primary source of food before they knew how to effectively farm animals for consumption. They also ate these fruits regularly, and of course, as time-shifted, we began to slowly change to a more protein-heavy diet, which can be tremendous and disastrous at the same time thanks to its pros and cons. On the other hand,, vegetable matter is excellent, but we still need Protein in our diets.
The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Polyphenol Blend comprises most of the supplement, with the second heavier component being the Metabolic Boosting Blend.
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Metabolic Boosting Blend

This is the real meat of the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic. The metabolic boosting blend is responsible for targeting the CRP and burning the fat more efficiently for rapid results that can shape the future of your life. Also referred to as the Shilajit Extract, it is rich in fulvic acid, which means that it’s a powerful anti-inflammatory supplement and a potent antioxidant in its own right. Combine this with the Polyphenol blend, and you have an antioxidant powerhouse that is unheard of in the supplemental world.
It also helps in the brain's proper function and can effectively become your energy booster for the rest of your day. With that much said, let us look at the components of Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic’s metabolic boosting blend.
  • Ginger Root
  • Cinnamon Bark Extract
  • Green Tea Extract
  • White Tea Extract
  • Turmeric Extract
  • Bitter Melon Extract
  • Black Pepper Fruit Extract
Bitter melon is mainly used for cardiovascular problems, and so it seems that it should not be here. However, it is also an antioxidant and can help with the blends boost to eliminate free radicals in our body. The anti-inflammatory properties of most ingredients here can immensely curb CRP production since CRP is known to become plentiful during inflammatory episodes. According to studies, people suffering from obesity can experience inflammation inside their bodies, decreasing that threat overall.
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Probiotic & Prebiotic Digestive Support Blend

If you’ve been health conscious all your life, then you’ll know what these two things mean. Probiotics are good bacteria that live in our gastrointestinal tract. They help breakdown the terrible things that we eat and promote better digestion. As such, these are useful creatures to have inside our gut, and they can be our best friends in keeping our tummy feeling great and safe every day. Prebiotics, on the other hand, are compounds that help our probiotics thrive inside our gut.
  • Organic Blue Agave Inulin
  • Bacillus Infantis
  • Bifidobacterium Longum
  • Lactobacillus Rhamnosus
  • Lactobacillus Acidophilus
  • L. Reuteri HA-188
Again, they are significant factors to our digestive system, and with an excellent digestive system, you can quickly expel toxins and excess fat out of your body with ease.
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Vitamins and Minerals

Lastly, vitamins and minerals comprise the supplement as a whole. There are lots of these that are included in the supplement. These are all beneficial to everyday life and can help our organs function as intended.
The vitamins and minerals that are contained in Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic are:
  • Thiamin
  • Riboflavin
  • Niacin
  • Vitamin B6
  • Folate
  • Vitamin B12
  • Biotin
  • Pantothenic Acid
  • Selenium
  • Chromium
All of these ingredients are 100% of your daily value. This means that one teaspoon of the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic supplement can give you the right amount of vitamins shown above, except Chromium. Chromium is more on the surplus – 167% of the daily recommended value.
Those are the ingredients of Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic. They may seem numerous, but they all do their jobs well. Think of them as four teams acting together to reach a specific goal. They’re effective together but less so if taken separately.
Learn More About These Ingredients Related Studies & Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Links, Check Out Their Reference Page Here =>

What are the Benefits of Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic?

Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic benefits are so numerous that we can discuss many things about it. The number of ingredients makes this possible to achieve, and as such, here is the list of some significant benefits that the tonic can have to the human body:
  • Improved weight loss reduction
  • Improved appetite (no appetite for junk foods, only healthy food)
  • Improved digestion
  • Improved cardiovascular health
  • Better self-esteem
  • Better mental health
  • Higher energy levels
The list goes on and on. Try it out yourself and see the difference. You’ll notice it soon if you’re taking this supplement diligently. It’s an excellent lifesaver on its own!
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What are the Side Effects of Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic?

So far, there are no significant side effects on the part of the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic. Well, if you overdose or take this tonic at ridiculously fast speeds, like let’s say, gulp it down in one day, then side effects will surely kick in. Most of it is mediocre side effects such as headaches and dizziness. If you experience anything major, such as pain in certain parts of your body, discontinue use, and consult your physician immediately.

How Much Does Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Cost?

You can buy Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic from:
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic costs $69 for each bottle. That also comes with a $9.95 shipping and handling fee. That seems pricey, yes? Do not fear, as the manufacturers rolled out some sweet discounts on your way.
If you buy 3 bottles of Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic, you can get them at $59 for each bottle! It also includes free shipping, so this is the better bang for your buck! However, if you want to have the best bang for your buck, let me introduce you to the best discount!
If you buy 6 bottles of Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic, it only costs $49 each bottle – free shipping! You can ridiculously save if you buy six bottles, so it is recommended that you get this one if you’re heavily impressed by this tonic dietary supplement.
As an added note, the Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic supplement ships internationally, so grab yours now wherever you are in the world (if you want it, of course).
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Related Studies that are Linked to Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic

Upon reading up on the sources that Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic made, we can see that they genuinely researched their product. Their 19 studies and references check out, and you can also see it for yourself. Just visit this link to see where they checked if their tonic will work or not.
To learn more about Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic from the Official Website click here >>

Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic Verdict

The Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic prides itself as one of the innovative leaders in the supplemental industry. Its powdered formula enables it to be easily accepted by the body, and its natural blends and flexibility certainly add more value to the product as a whole.It’s a yes for me!
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Disclosure

Pregnant or nursing mothers must not use Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic, children under 18 years of age (minors), and individuals with known medical conditions without doctors' approval. They should consult a physician first before using this product. There may be unknown complications that may arise when taking this supplement, so it is better to consult your physician first, even if you do not belong to the people groups listed above. As usual, keep it out of children, as the dosage is tailored to adults. Always store the bottle in a cool, dry place.
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Product Contact:
Okinawa Flat Belly Tonic
[email protected]
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Want to start fresh after the crypto crash? Here is a comprehensive guide on how to invest and prosper over the long term.

Well its happened, the crypto market just experienced the worst crash since 2014, the bubble has burst. The idiocy of newbies FOMO-ing into anything with low nominal value lead to endless twitter timelines like this, and now nobody has any idea where the market settles. What do you do now?
In the following weeks it will be a good time to rethink your investment approach and how you arrive at your decisions. Just buying whatever is shilled on Twitter or Reddit and jumping from one crypto to another isn't going to work like it did these last two months.
The good news is that we're finally back closer and closer to our long term moving average which is much more healthy for entrants, the bad news is that the fear might continue compounding if outstanding issues are not dealt with. Tether is the big concern for me personally for reasons I've stated many times, but some relief in the short term may come if the SEC and CFTC meeting on February 6th goes well. Nobody really knows where the bottom is but I think we're now past the "irrational exhuberance" stage and we're entering a period of more serious inspection where cryptos will actually have to prove themselves as useful. I suspect hype artists like CryptoNick and John McAfee will fall out of favor.
But perhaps most importantly use this as a learning experience, don't try to point fingers now. The type of dumb behavior that people were engaging in that was rewarded in a bull market (chasing pumps, going all in on a shillcoin, following hype..etc) could only ever lead to what we are experiencing now. Just like so many people jumped on the crypto bandwagon during the bull run, they will just as quickly jump on whatever bandwagon is to be used to blame for the deflation of the bubble. Nobody who pumped money into garbage without any use case will accept that they themselves with their own investing behavior were the real reason for the gross overvaluation of most cryptocurrencies, and the inevitable crash.
So if you're looking for a fresh start after the massacre (or just want to get in now), here is a guide:

Part A: Making a Investment Strategy

This is your money, put some effort into investing it with an actual strategy. Some simple yet essential advice that should apply to everyone, regardless of individual strategy:
  1. Slow down and research each crypto that you're buying for at least a week.
  2. Don't buy something just because it has risen.
  3. Don't exit a position just because it has declined.
  4. Invest only as much as you can afford to lose.
  5. Prepare enter and exit strategies in advance.
First take some time to think about your ROI target, set your hold periods for each position and how much you are actually ready to risk losing.
ROI targets
A lot of young investors who are in crypto have unrealistic expectations about returns and risk. A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 5-10% ROI in a month to be unexciting.
But its important to temper your hype and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year and how unlikely it is that we see 10x returns in the next year. What we saw recently was Greater Fool Theory in action. Those unexciting returns of 5-10% a month are much more of the norm, and much more healthy for an alternative investment class.
You can think about setting a target in terms of the market ROI over a relevant holding period and then add or decrease based on your own risk profile.
Example: Calculating a 2 year ROI target
Lets say you want to hold for 2 years now, how could you set a realistic target to strive for? You could look at a historical 2 year return as a base, preferably during a period similar to what we're facing now. Now that we had a major correction, I think we can look at the two year period starting in 2015 after we had the 2014 crash. To calculate a 2 year CAGR starting in 2015:
Year Total Crypto Market Cap
Jan 1, 2015: $5.5 billion
Jan 1, 2017: $18 billion
Compounded annual growth return (CAGR): [(18/5.5)1/2]-1 = 81%
This annual return rate of 81% comes out to about 4.9% compounded monthly. This may not sound exciting to the lambo moon crowd, but it will keep you grounded in reality. You can aim for a higher return (say 2x of that 81% rate) if you choose to take on more risky propositions. I can't tell you what return target you should set for yourself, but just make sure its not depended on you needing to achieve continual near vertical parabolic price action in small cap shillcoins because that isn't sustainable.
Once you have a target you can construct your risk profile (low risk vs. high risk category coins) in your portfolio based on your target.
Risk Management
Everything you buy in crypto is risky, but it still helps to think of these 3 risk categories:
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation for one, but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology.
The general starting point I would recommend is:
Some more core principles on risk management to consider:
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm), but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, it is essentially the risk that is carried by the entire market over things like regulations. What you can minimize though the Ri, the specific risks with your crypto. That will depend on the team composition, geographic risks (for example Chinese coins like NEO carry regulatory risks specific to China), competition within the space and likelihood of adoption and other factors, which I'll describe in Part 2: Crypto Picking Methodology.
Portfolio Allocation
Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization but I generally like to bring it down to:
Think about your "Circle of Competence", your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Your ability to properly judge risk and potential is going to largely correlated to your understanding of the subject matter. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption? If you don't understand anything about the tech when you read the Cardano paper, are you really able to determine how likely it is to be adopted?
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you have over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.

Part B: Crypto Picking Methodology (Due Dilligence)

Do you struggle on how to fundamentally analyze cryptocurrencies? Here is a 3-step methodology to follow to perform your due dilligence:

Step 1: Filtering and Research

There is so much out there that you can get overwhelmed. The best way to start is to think back to your own portfolio allocation strategy and what you would like to get more off. For example in my view enterprise-focused blockchain solutions will be important in the next few years, and so I look to create a list of various cryptos that are in that segment.
Upfolio has brief descriptions of the top 100 cryptos and is filterable by categories, for example you can click the "Enterprise" category and you have a neat list of VEN, FCT, WTC...etc.
Once you have a list of potential candidates, its time to read about them:
  • Critically evaluate the website. If it's a cocktail of nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and poorly made, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
  • Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on.
  • Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts selling? Try to figure out who the whales are (not always easy!) and what the foundation/founder account is based on the initial allocation.
  • Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
  • Search out the subreddit and look at a few Medium or Steem blogs about the coin. How "shilly" is the community, and how much engagement is there between developer and the community?
  • I would also go through the BitcoinTalk thread and Twitter mentions, judge both the length and quality of the discussion.
You can actually filter out a lot of scams and bad investments by simply keeping your eye out on the following red flags:
  • allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • guaranteed promises of returns (Bitcooonnneeeect!)
  • vague whitepapers filled with buzzwords
  • vague timelines and no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on

Step 2: Passing a potential pick through a checklist

Once you feel fairly confident that a pick is worth analyzing further, run them through a standardized checklist of questions. This is one I use, you can add other questions yourself:
Crypto Analysis Checklist
What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
How big is the market they're targeting?
Who is their competition and what does it do better?
What is the roadmap they created and how well have they kept to it?
What current product exists?
How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
Is there any new tech, and is it informational or governance based?
Can it be easily copied?
What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
The last question is the most important.
This is where the riskiness of your crypto is evaluated, the Ri I talked about above. Here you should be able to accurate place the crypto into one of the three risk categories. I also like to run through this checklist of blockchain benefits and consider which specific properties of the blockchain are being used by the specific crypto to provide some increased utility over the current transactional method:
Benefits of Cryptocurrency
Decentralization - no need for a third party to agree or validate transactions.
Transparency and trust - As blockchain are shared, everyone can see what transactions occur. Useful for something like an online casino.
Immutability - It is extremely difficult to change a transaction once its been put onto a blockchain
Distributed availability - The system is spread on thousands of nodes on a P2P network, so its difficult to take the system down.
Security - cryptographically secured transactions provide integrity
Simplification and consolidation - a blockchain can serve as a shared ledger in industries where multiple entities previously kept their own data sources
Quicker Settlement - In the financial industry when we're dealing with post-trade settlement, a blockchain can drastically increase the speed of verification
Cost - in some cases avoiding a third party verification would drastically reduce costs.

Step 3: Create a valuation model

You don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do:
Probablistic Scenario Valuation
This is all about thinking of scenarios and probability, a helpful exercise in itself. For example: Bill Miller, a prominent value investor, wrote a probabilistic valuation case for Bitcoin in 2015. He looked at two possible scenarios for probabalistic valuation:
  1. becoming a store-of-value equal to gold (a $6.4 trillion value), with a .25% probability of occurring
  2. replacing payment processors like VISA, MasterCard, etc. (a $350 million dollar value) with a 2.5% probability
Combining those scenarios would give you the total expected market cap: (0.25% x 6.4 trillion) + (2.5% x 350 million). Divide this by the outstanding supply and you have your valuation.
Metcalfe's Law
Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic. We can alter this to crypto by thinking about it in terms of both users and transactions:
For example, compare the Coinbase pairs:
Metric Bitoin Ethereum Litecoin
Market Cap $152 Billion $93 Billion $7.3 Billion
Daily Transactions (last 24hrs) 249,851 1,051,427 70,397
Active Addresses (Peak 1Yr) 1,132,000 1,035,000 514,000
Metcalfe Ratio (Transactions Based) 2.43 0.08 1.47
Metcalfe Ratio (Address Based) 0.12 0.09 0.03
Generally the higher the ratio, the higher the valuation given for each address/transaction.
Market Cap to Industry comparisons
Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
More complex valuation models
If you would like to get into more fleshed out models with Excel, I highly recommend Chris Burniske's blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done by Nodar Janashia using Chris' model .
You should create multiple scenarios with multiple assumptions, both positive and negative. Have a base scenario and then moderately optimistic/pessimistic and highly optimistic/pessimistic scenario.
Personally I like to see at least a 50% upward potential before investing from my moderately pessimistic scenario, but you can set your own safety margin.
The real beneficial thing about modelling isn't even the price or valuation comparisons it spits out, but that it forces you to think about why the coin has value and what your own assumption about the future are. For example the discount rate you apply to the net present utility formula drastically affects the valuation, and it reflects your own assumptions of how risky the crypto is. What exactly would be a reasonable discount rate? What about the digital economy you are assuming for the coin, what levers affects its size and adoption and how likely are your assumptions to come true? You'll be a drastically more intelligent investor if you think about the fundamental variables that give your coin the market cap you think it should hold.

Summing it up

The time for lambo psychosis is over. But that's no reason to feel down, this is a new day and what many were waiting for. I've put together in one place here how to construct a portfolio allocation (taking into consideration risk and return targets), and how to go through a systematic crypto picking method. I'm won't tell you what to buy, you should always decide that for yourself and DYOR. But as long as you follow a rational and thorough methodology (feel free to modify anything I said above to suit your own needs) you will feel pretty good about your investments, even in times like these.
Edit: Also get a crypto prediction ferret. You won't regret it.
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relative risk confidence interval formula excel video

Confidence Interval Excel Formula =CONFIDENCE(alpha,standard_dev,size) The CONFIDENCE function uses the following arguments: Alpha (required argument) – This is the significance level used to compute the confidence level. The significance level is equal to 1– confidence level. So, a significance level of 0.05 is equal to a 95% confidence level. Formula: Relative Risk (RR) = ( a / ( a + b ) ) / ( c / ( c + d ) ) Where, a = Exposed Group Positive Outcome, b = Exposed Group Negative Outcome, c = Control Group Positive Outcome, d = Control Group Negative Outcome, Formula: Relative Risk (RR) = ( a / ( a + b ) ) / ( c / ( c + d ) ) Where, a = Exposed Group Positive Outcome, b = Exposed Group Negative Outcome, c = Control Group Positive Outcome, d = Control Group Negative Outcome, Calculating Relative risk ratio for confidence intervals is made easier using this online RR calculator. RR = p1/p2. Compute the confidence interval for Ln(RR) using the equation above. Compute the confidence interval for RR by finding the antilog of the result in step 1, i.e., exp(Lower Limit), exp (Upper Limit). Note that the null valueof the confidence interval for the relative risk is one. If the average is 100 and the confidence value is 10, that means the confidence interval is 100 ± 10 or 90 – 110.. If you don’t have the average or mean of your data set, you can use the Excel ‘AVERAGE’ function to find it.. Also, you have to calculate the standard deviation which shows how the individual data points are spread out from the mean. I am working on some MRSA data and need to calculate the relative risk of a group of hospitals compared with the remaining hospital. My colleagues throws me an excel with a formula inside to calculate the "exact confidence interval of relative risk", I can do the calculation without difficulties, but I have no idea on how and why this formula is used for do such calculation. The relative risk tells us the ratio of the probability of an event occurring in a treatment group to the probability of an event occurring in a control group. It is calculated as: Relative risk = [A/ (A+B)] / [C/ (C+D)] This tutorial explains how to calculate odds ratios and relative risk in Excel.

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relative risk confidence interval formula excel

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