The Russia Mafia is part and parcel of Russian intelligence. Russia is a mafia state. That is not a metaphor. Putin is head of the Mafia. So the fact that they have deep ties to Donald Trump is deeply disturbing. Trump conducted FIVE completely private meetings and conferences with Putin, and has gone to great lengths to prevent literally anyone, even people in his administration, from learning what was discussed.
According to an ex-KGB spy...Russia has been cultivating Trump as an asset for 40 years.
Trump was first compromised by the Russians in the 80s. In 1984, the Russian Mafia began to use Trump real estate to launder money.
In 1984, David Bogatin — a convicted Russian mobster and close ally of Semion Mogilevich, a major Russian mob boss — met with Trump in Trump Tower right after it opened. Bogatin bought five condos from Trump at that meeting. Those condos were later seized by the government, which claimed they were used to launder money for the Russian mob.
“During the ’80s and ’90s, we in the U.S. government repeatedly saw a pattern by which criminals would use condos and high-rises to launder money,” says Jonathan Winer, a deputy assistant secretary of state for international law enforcement in the Clinton administration. “It didn’t matter that you paid too much, because the real estate values would rise, and it was a way of turning dirty money into clean money. It was done very systematically, and it explained why there are so many high-rises where the units were sold but no one is living in them.”
When Trump Tower was built, as David Cay Johnston reports in The Making of Donald Trump, it was only the second high-rise in New York that accepted anonymous buyers.
In 1987, the Soviet ambassador to the United Nations, Yuri Dubinin, arranged for Trump and his then-wife, Ivana, to enjoy an all-expense-paid trip to Moscow to consider business prospects.
A short while later he made his first call for the dismantling of the NATO alliance. Which would benefit Russia.
At the beginning of 1990 Donald Trump owed a combined $4 billion to more than 70 banks, with $800 million personally guaranteed by his own assets, according to Alan Pomerantz, a lawyer whose team led negotiations between Trump and 72 banks to restructure Trump’s loans. Pomerantz was hired by Citibank.
Interview with Pomerantz
Trump agreed to pay the bond lenders 14% interest, roughly 50% more than he had projected, to raise $675 million. It was the biggest gamble of his career. Trump could not keep pace with his debts. Six months later, the Taj defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin.
In July 1991, Trump’s Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy.
So he bankrupted a casino? What about Ru...
The Trump Taj Mahal casino broke anti-money laundering rules 106 times in its first year and a half of operation in the early 1990s, according to the IRS in a 1998 settlement agreement.
The casino repeatedly failed to properly report gamblers who cashed out $10,000 or more in a single day, the government said."The violations date back to a time when the Taj Mahal was the preferred gambling spot for Russian mobsters living in Brooklyn, according to federal investigators who tracked organized crime in New York City. They also occurred at a time when the Taj Mahal casino was short on cash and on the verge of bankruptcy."
....ssia
So by the mid 1990s Trump was then at a low point of his career. He defaulted on his debts to a number of large Wall Street banks and was overleveraged. Two of his businesses had declared bankruptcy, the Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City and the Plaza Hotel in New York, and the money pit that was the Trump Shuttle went out of business in 1992. Trump companies would ultimately declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy two more times.
Trump was $4 billion in debt after his Atlantic City casinos went bankrupt. No U.S. bank would touch him. Then foreign money began flowing in through Deutsche Bank.
The extremely controversial Deutsche Bank. The Nazi financing, Auschwitz building, law violating, customer misleading, international currency markets manipulating, interest rate rigging, Iran & others sanctions violating, Russian money laundering, salvation of Donald J. Trump.
The agreeing to a $7.2 billion settlement with with the U.S. Department of Justice over its sale and pooling of toxic mortgage securities and causing the 2008 financial crisis bank.
The appears to have facilitated more than half of the $2 trillion of suspicious transactions that were flagged to the U.S. government over nearly two decades bank.
The embroiled in a $20b money-laundering operation, dubbed the Global Laundromat. The launders money for Russian criminals with links to the Kremlin, the old KGB and its main successor, the FSB bank.
That bank.
Three minute video detailing Trump's debts and relationship with Deutsche Bank
In 1998, Russia defaulted on $40 billion in debt, causing the ruble to plummet and Russian banks to close. The ensuing financial panic sent the country’s oligarchs and mobsters scrambling to find a safe place to put their money. That October, just two months after the Russian economy went into a tailspin, Trump broke ground on his biggest project yet.
Directly across the street from the United Nations building.
Russian Linked-Deutsche Bank arranged to lend hundreds of millions of dollars to finance Trump’s construction of a skyscraper next to the United Nations.
Construction got underway in 1999.
Units on the tower’s priciest floors were quickly snatched up by individual buyers from the former Soviet Union, or by limited liability companies connected to Russia. “We had big buyers from Russia and Ukraine and Kazakhstan,” sales agent Debra Stotts told Bloomberg. After Trump World Tower opened, Sotheby’s International Realty teamed up with a Russian real estate company to make a big sales push for the property in Russia. The “tower full of oligarchs,” as Bloomberg called it, became a model for Trump’s projects going forward. All he needed to do, it seemed, was slap the Trump name on a big building, and high-dollar customers from Russia and the former Soviet republics were guaranteed to come rushing in.
New York City real estate broker Dolly Lenz told USA TODAY she sold about 65 condos in Trump World at 845 U.N. Plaza in Manhattan to Russian investors, many of whom sought personal meetings with Trump for his business expertise.
“I had contacts in Moscow looking to invest in the United States,” Lenz said. “They all wanted to meet Donald. They became very friendly.”Lots of Russian and Eastern European Friends. Investing lots of money. And not only in New York.
Miami is known as a hotspot of the ultra-wealthy looking to launder their money from overseas. Thousands of Russians have moved to Sunny Isles. Hundreds of ultra-wealthy former Soviet citizens bought Trump properties in South Florida. People with really disturbing histories investing millions and millions of dollars. Igor Zorin offers a story with all the weirdness modern Miami has to offer: Russian cash, a motorcycle club named after Russia’s powerful special forces and a condo tower branded by Donald Trump.
Thanks to its heavy Russian presence, Sunny Isles has acquired the nickname “Little Moscow.”
From an interview with a Miami based Siberian-born realtor... “Miami is a brand,” she told me as we sat on a sofa in the building’s huge foyer. “People from all over the world want property here.” Developers were only putting up luxury properties because they “know that the crisis has not affected people with money,”
Most of her clients are Russian—there are now three direct flights per week between Moscow and Miami—and increasing numbers are moving to Florida after spending a few years in London first. “It’s a money center, and it’s a lot easier to get your money there than directly to the US, because of laws and tax issues,” she said. “But after your money has been in London for a while, you can move it to other places more easily.”
In the 2000s, Trump turned to licensing deals and trademarks, collecting a fee from other companies using the Trump name. This has allowed Trump to distance himself from properties or projects that have failed or encountered legal trouble and provided a convenient workaround to help launch projects, especially in Russia and former Soviet states, which bear Trump’s name but otherwise little relation to his general business.
Enter Bayrock Group, a development company and key Trump real estate partner during the 2000s. Bayrock partnered with Trump in 2005 and invested an incredible amount of money into the Trump organization under the legal guise of licensing his name and property management. Bayrock was run by two investors:
Felix Sater, a Russian-born mobster who served a year in prison for stabbing a man in the face with a margarita glass during a bar fight, pleaded guilty to racketeering as part of a mafia-driven "pump-and-dump" stock fraud and then escaped jail time by becoming a highly valued government informant. He was an important figure at Bayrock, notably with the Trump SoHo hotel-condominium in New York City, and has said under oath that he represented Trump in Russia and subsequently billed himself as a senior Trump advisor, with an office in Trump Tower. He is a convict who became a govt cooperator for the FBI and other agencies. He grew up with Micahel Cohen --Trump's disbarred former "fixer" attorney. Cohen's family owned El Caribe, which was a mob hangout for the Russian Mafia in Brooklyn. Cohen had ties to Ukrainian oligarchs through his in-laws and his brother's in-laws. Felix Sater's father had ties to the Russian mob.
Tevfik Arif, a Kazakhstan-born former "Soviet official" who drew on bottomless sources of money from the former Soviet republic. Arif graduated from the Moscow Institute of Trade and Economics and worked as a Soviet trade and commerce official for 17 years before moving to New York and founding Bayrock. In 2002, after meeting Trump, he moved Bayrock’s offices to Trump Tower, where he and his staff of Russian émigrés set up shop on the twenty-fourth floor.
Arif was offering him a 20 to 25 percent cut on his overseas projects, he said, not to mention management fees. Trump said in the deposition that Bayrock’s Tevfik Arif “brought the people up from Moscow to meet with me,”and that he was teaming with Bayrock on other planned ventures in Moscow. The only Russians who are likely have the resources and political connections to sponsor such ambitious international deals are the corrupt oligarchs.
In 2005, Trump told The Miami Herald “The name has brought a cachet to certain areas that wouldn’t have had it,” Dezer said Trump’s name put Sunny Isles Beach on the map as a classy destination — and the Trump-branded condo units sold “10 to 20 percent higher than any of our competitors, and at a faster pace.”“We didn’t have any foreclosures or anything, despite the crisis.”
In a 2007 deposition that was part of his unsuccessful defamation lawsuit against reporter Timothy O’Brien Trump testified "that Bayrock was working their international contacts to complete Trump/Bayrock deals in Russia, Ukraine, and Poland. He testified that “Bayrock knew the investors” and that “this was going to be the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Moscow, Kiev, Istanbul, et cetera, and Warsaw, Poland.”
In 2008, Donald Trump Jr. gave the following statement to the “Bridging U.S. and Emerging Markets Real Estate” conference in Manhattan: “[I]n terms of high-end product influx into the United States, Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets; say in Dubai, and certainly with our project in SoHo and anywhere in New York. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.”
In July 2008, Trump sold a mansion in Palm Beach for $95 million to Dmitry Rybolovlev, a Russian oligarch. Trump had purchased it four years earlier for $41.35 million. The sale price was nearly $54 million more than Trump had paid for the property. This was the height of the recession when all other property had plummeted in value. Must be nice to have so many Russian oligarchs interested in giving you money.
In 2013, Trump went to Russia for the Miss Universe pageant “financed in part by the development company of a Russian billionaire Aras Agalarov.… a Putin ally who is sometimes called the ‘Trump of Russia’ because of his tendency to put his own name on his buildings.” He met with many oligarchs. Timeline of events. Flight records show how long he was there.
Video interview in Moscow where Trump says "...China wanted it this year. And Russia wanted it very badly." I bet they did.
Also in 2013, Federal agents busted an “ultraexclusive, high-stakes, illegal poker ring” run by Russian gangsters out of Trump Tower. They operated card games, illegal gambling websites, and a global sports book and laundered more than $100 million. A condo directly below one owned by Trump reportedly served as HQ for a “sophisticated money-laundering scheme” connected to Semion Mogilevich.
In 2014, Eric Trump told golf reporter James Dodson that the Trump Organization was able to expand during the financial crisis because “We don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia. I said, 'Really?' And he said, 'Oh, yeah. We’ve got some guys that really, really love golf, and they’re really invested in our programmes. We just go there all the time.’”
A 2015 racketeering case against Bayrock, Sater, and Arif, and others, alleged that: “for most of its existence it [Bayrock] was substantially and covertly mob-owned and operated,” engaging “in a pattern of continuous, related crimes, including mail, wire, and bank fraud; tax evasion; money laundering; conspiracy; bribery; extortion; and embezzlement.” Although the lawsuit does not allege complicity by Trump, it claims that Bayrock exploited its joint ventures with Trump as a conduit for laundering money and evading taxes. The lawsuit cites as a “Concrete example of their crime, Trump SoHo, [which] stands 454 feet tall at Spring and Varick, where it also stands monument to spectacularly corrupt money-laundering and tax evasion.”
In 2016, the Trump Presidential Campaign was helped by Russia.
(I don't have the presidential term sourced yet. I'll post an update when I do. I'm sure you probably remember most of them...sigh. TY to the main posters here. Obviously I'm standing on your shoulders having taken a lot of the information or articles from here).

Good day, Exiles! Long time reader, few times poster here.
With so much interest in the stock market this past week I thought I’d share some real life currency trading strategies - translated to PoE - to help you get rich! This guide is mostly meant as fun and educational, but if you wanna try your hand at this, feel free.
This guide is very long (sorry!), and also contains a little math and a few financial terms (I have tried to keep both at a minimum).
So let’s get started with a few mechanics and market fundamentals of the PoE market:

• First, most of these strategies are based on Fx-trading (foreign exchange) and centered around making arbitrage profits. What is arbitrage? It’s being able to exploit the differences in price of the same asset in different forms (or markets, but since PoE only has a single market this is not relevant). On top of that, arbitrage profits are guaranteed, there is no gambling involved or making predictions. When you execute the arbitrage trade you are in profit.
• Second, arbitrage does in theory not exist on perfect markets. But is the poe market perfect? Nope, far from.
• Third, I’m sure you are all familiar with the theory around supply and demand so we’ll not go deep into that however this also applies to PoE. But what’s interesting about PoE is that we have an endless supply (of most things) and unlimited demand (of some things). We use this to our advantage.
• Fourth, a difference from real life markets is that buying and selling larger amounts of an asset in PoE raises the price. You could in theory argue that the same applies to the stock market for example but then we’re talking about hundreds of thousands of shares while in PoE these larger numbers are in the 10s and 100s and can be acquired by anyone.

1. Exploiting the bid/ask spread

Theory: In foreign exchange, market makers buy and sell currencies at what is called the bid and the ask price. They bid one price to take the currency off your hands, and they ask another price to give it to you (you’ll see this in airports for example). The actual price of the currency is somewhere in between. This spread is how foreign exchange firms make all their profit.
Description: Ever tired selling and buying exalted orbs? We can all agree that the price of an exalted orb is 80 chaos, however when buying one we seem to sometimes be paying 81 chaos. And when selling for chaos perhaps we only receive 79 chaos. This gives a bid/ask spread of 2 chaos. To benefit from this price difference we have to act as the market maker by SELLING our currency instead of exchanging (buying) it. This plays directly on to the fact that there is an unlimited demand in the market.
Execution: Instead of visiting the trade site and proceeding to whisper sellers you act as the seller by listing your currency at a slightly higher price than it’s worth. Never be the buyer!
Profitability: Low (but rises with high volume, see section 5).
Works for: Mainly chaos/exalt

2. Pure arbitrage trades

Theory: In real life you find pure arbitrage trades by noticing price differences on currencies or assets on different markets. For example, you could buy Mexican peso in the US market and instantly sell it in the London market should there be a price difference.
Description: Arbitrage trades in poe can be done with any currency that has either a divination card or a vendor recipe. It’s quite simple, take the chaos-exalt currency pair as an example. What you do is simply buy divination cards like The Saint’s Treasure or Abandoned Wealth for chaos orbs. The cards are essentially exactly the same thing as parts of exalted orbs. The Saint’s Treasure currently trades around 14-17c (minimum stack size 3). So by buying 10 of these at the lower price levels (let’s say 15c), we get two exalted orbs for the price of 150 chaos. Proceed to instantly sell the two exalted orbs for 80 chaos each, and by doing so make a 10 chaos arbitrage profit.
Execution: Buy divination cards that give exalts, fusings, alterations, regrets, scourings (at a lower price than the actual value of the card) - turn in the cards, sell the currency from the cards on the market for chaos. Alternatively, using the vendor system, you buy Orb of Augmentation, Jeweller's orb or Chance orbs in the market at a price that is lower than ¼ (the vendor price) of an Alteration, Fusing or Scouring respectively, then exchange these with the vendor and sell the refined currency in the market for chaos orbs.
Profitability: Medium, requires some math and some time.
Works for: Anything that has a divination card or vendor recipe and a price discrepancy.

3. Exploiting cross-rates

Theory: Cross-rates are a triangulation method used in order to make an arbitrage profit on Fx-trading. By taking a currency pair like USD/GBP and involving a third currency, a “middle hand” like the Euro, you can make an arbitrage profit by exchanging USD into GBP, GBP into Euro and Euro back into USD. In the real world discrepancies occur occasionally but are very small and adjusted quickly.
Description: How do we calculate cross-rates in PoE? Well, exactly how we do it in the real world market ofcourse. With math and the following formula: A/B * B/C = A/C. The answer in this calculation is what the price of an asset should be. So let’s do some math with Chaos orbs, Exalted orbs and Alterations as the middle hand.
A = Chaos, B = Exalt, C = Alteration
A/B = 80/1
B/C = 1/320
Which gives us a theoretical price of A/C (Chaos per Alteration): 80/1 * 1/320 = 0.25.
Buying alterations for chaos currently costs about 0.22-0.24c per alt. So we have a discrepancy from what the price should be.
Execution: We sell 1 exalt for 80 chaos, we buy alterations at the price of 0.24c per alt which yields us 333 alterations. We then proceed to sell 320 alterations in the market for 1 exalted orb. Our profit is 13 alterations = ~4 chaos.
Profitability: Medium-High (but complicated and time consuming).
Works for: Chaos orbs and exalted orbs along with a third currency.

4. Carry-trades

Theory: A carry trade is a trading strategy that utilizes the difference between interest rates in different countries. Let’s say the USA has low interest rates and Britain has high interest rates. You borrow USD, exchange for GBP which you deposit in the UK and let the money grow with the british interest rates while you pay the low interest on the USD you borrowed. You then sell back the GDP to USD in the future using a forward contract today (this is called hedging your position). Your profit is the difference between interest rates minus the fees from the short forward contract.
Description: This exact method does not really translate to PoE as we don’t have any interest. However with some game knowledge you can still utilize carry trades early in the leagues by investing in various things like Orb of Alteration. In the first week of any league chaos orbs are scarce and everyone wants them. So you sell yours for Alterations (which was trading at 7:1 the first week of the new league). Deposit the alterations in your currency tab and sell them back to the market one week later to the current 4:1 price.
Execution: Invest early in currencies that will become more expensive the longer the league goes on. Let time (our interest) do the work for you.
Profitability: Very high (but these kinds of trades are limited to early league)
Works for: Alterations, expensive div cards, expensive prophecies.

5. Volume trading (aka “flipping”)

Theory: Volume trading basically revolves around using high volume to make small gains (in percent) become substantial in nominal value.
Description: Remember the bid/ask spread-exploit? What if you sell your exalted orb for 81 chaos and then again proceed to sell 79 of your chaos orbs for 1 exalt. You’ll end up where you began with 1 exalt but also an extra 2 chaos orbs. Now imagine following this pattern 100 times and you have made 200c. The secret to get rich from this is using more than 1 exalt. If you start with 20. You’ll make 40c profit, at least, as you are now a bulk seller you can increase your spread to 3c, so you’ll make 60 chaos, from flipping your exalts one time.
Do it with 100 exalts, and you’ll make 300 chaos, or 5 exalts.
Execution: Sell chaos for exalts and then exalts for chaos and then chaos for exalt. Use a slightly highelower price for the conversion. Use high volume and print chaos orbs.
Profitability: High (if you got the volume).
Works for: Chaos/Exalt mainly.

6. Value creation

Theory: This is quite different from the rest of the strategies but creating value by refining a product or raw material is essentially the business model for many, many, companies. So why wouldn’t it work in PoE right?
Description: The idea is buying raw material, enhancing products, and selling the finished product at a higher price. But remember; we don’t gamble. So for example, Shavronne’s Wrappings is selling uncorrupted for 38 chaos right now. However a 6-socket version of the chest is selling at around 70 chaos. So we could theoretically buy 350 jewellers orb for the current market price of 21 chaos. Use the crafting table to 6-socket our Shavs with our 350 Jewellers orb and voíla; we made a profit of 70-38-21=11 chaos orbs.
Execution: There are a large number of things you can buy, improve and sell. 6-socket chests as in our example. Prophecy items (require base unique, prophecy and a map) usually make a fine profit as well. I won’t go into more detail but value creation is something you can just always keep in mind.
Profitability: Medium
Works for: Gear, prophecy uniques, jewels affected by divine orbs, alternative quality gems and more!
​
Edit 1; Some typos. And I wanna mention once again that these strategies work best if you trade in bulk (high volume). An average player would probably make more currency from just mapping. However, it can be very usefull know some of these mechanics, even if you don't utilize them.

President Donald Trump announced he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the virus and will begin their quarantine and recovery process immediately. The news comes after it was announced that close presidential aide Hope Hicks tested positive Wednesday evening.
Megathread Part I

Submissions that may interest you

SUBMISSION	DOMAIN
Trump, first lady to quarantine after top aide tests positive for coronavirus	thehill.com
Trump flew to New Jersey for a fundraiser, reportedly after learning Hope Hicks had COVID-19 symptoms	theweek.com
Putin says Trump's 'inherent vitality' will see him through COVID-19	reuters.com
Trump in 'quarantine process' after top aide gets COVID-19	sfgate.com
Trump in ‘Quarantine Process' After Top Aide Gets COVID-19	nbcwashington.com
President Donald Trump, first lady to quarantine after top aide tests positive for COVID-19	upi.com
Trump in ‘quarantine process’ after top aide gets COVID-19	bostonherald.com
Trump's positive Covid-19 test throws country into fresh upheaval	amp.cnn.com
Putin offers Trump wishes of 'sincere support' after positive coronavirus test	thehill.com
Trump tests positive for COVID-19: What happens if the president cannot perform his duties?	wftv.com
President Trump and first lady Melania test positive for COVID-19	cbsnews.com
Fears for Joe Biden after Trump tests positive for Covid	theguardian.com
Trump's positive Covid test was a surprise that many saw coming	theguardian.com
Biden Will Get Urgent COVID-19 Test After Trump’s Diagnosis, Says Report	thedailybeast.com
Vice President Mike Pence and second lady test negative for coronavirus following Trump's positive diagnosis	cnbc.com
VP Mike Pence tests negative and 'remains in good heath,' after Trump tests positive for COVID-19	timesunion.com
The Finance 202: Stock futures dive on the news that Trump has coronavirus	washingtonpost.com
Putin wished Trump a speedy recovery after his COVID-19 diagnosis, and said his 'innate vitality' will see him through	businessinsider.com
Mike Pence and wife Karen test negative for coronavirus after Trump diagnosis	independent.co.uk
China’s state media outlet mocks Trump for contracting coronavirus	nypost.com
Inb4 trump has now "contracted" coronavirus cos his team knew he f****d up the first debate that bad that any further appearance would be detrimental to his campaign.	sbs.com.au
Putin says Trump's 'inherent vitality' will see him through COVID-19	reuters.com
Mike Pence and wife Karen test negative for coronavirus after Trump diagnosis	independent.co.uk
Trump tests positive for COVID-19: Pence tests negative, Biden reportedly getting test	usatoday.com
Timeline: How Trump Has Downplayed The Coronavirus Pandemic	npr.org
Trump's coronavirus diagnosis presents America with new clear, present dangers	axios.com
Biden to get tested Friday morning following Trump COVID-19 positive test: report	thehill.com
The virus spares no one’: World reacts to Trump’s positive coronavirus test	washingtonpost.com
Shock, sympathy, mockery: World reacts to Trump infection - CBC News	cbc.ca
Trump’s Covid diagnosis renews testing debate on Capitol Hill	politico.com
Mike Pence, who will assume the presidency if Trump is incapacitated, has tested negative for COVID-19	businessinsider.com
Biden wishes Trump, first lady 'swift recovery' after positive COVID-19 tests	thehill.com
MyPillow Guy Mike Lindell Shouts Out Unproven COVID-19 'Cure' To Trump	huffpost.com
Age, obesity put Trump at high risk for severe coronavirus infection	axios.com
Chinese state media mocks Trump's positive virus test: 'Paid the price for his gamble to play down' pandemic	thehill.com
Older, overweight and male: Trump's COVID risk factors make him vulnerable	reuters.com
President Trump’s positive Covid-19 test throws country into fresh upheaval	mercurynews.com
Trump’s Covid-19 Diagnosis Reshapes Election a Month From Vote	bloomberg.com
MyPillow Guy Mike Lindell Shouts Out Unproven COVID-19 ‘Cure’ To Trump	m.huffpost.com
Trump’s positive coronavirus test will keep him out of swing states he hasn't visited yet	independent.co.uk
QAnon Believers Think Trump Got COVID On Purpose Because of Course They Do - QAnon followers believe the virus is fake, but also that Trump has it. And they're "dangerously hype" about it.	vice.com
Biden says he's 'praying for the health and safety" of Trump after the president's COVID-19 diagnosis	businessinsider.com
Keller: Will Voters Punish Trump For Deriding Coronavirus Precautions?	boston.cbslocal.com
‘Wear A God Damn Mask,’ Joe Kennedy Tweets While Wishing Trump Fast Covid Recovery	boston.cbslocal.com
New York Times slammed for suggesting Trump might not remain on ballot after coronavirus diagnosis	foxnews.com
Trump joked while people suffered with Covid. Well, is now the time to stop?	theguardian.com
Pence, second lady test negative for coronavirus after Trump's positive result	thehill.com
Coronavirus: Pelosi says Trump’s failure to wear masks at rallies was ‘brazen invitation’	independent.co.uk
Fox's Kilmeade: Trump could serve as positive example if he beats COVID while in 'danger age' of 74	thehill.com
White House wanted to keep Hope Hicks's positive COVID-19 test private: report	thehill.com
Trump experiencing ‘mild symptoms’ after coronavirus diagnosis	cnbc.com
Trump experiencing 'mild symptoms' after coronavirus diagnosis	cnbc.com
Trump’s strange pre-spin on his coronavirus diagnosis: It came from military, police who want to ‘hug’ and ‘kiss’ you	washingtonpost.com
Minnesota congressmen traveled with Trump before, after Duluth rally and positive COVID-19 test	duluthnewstribune.com
White House official: Trump experiencing ‘mild’ symptoms of coronavirus after positive test	apnews.com
Putin sends Trump a telegram offering ‘sincere support’ after positive coronavirus test	marketwatch.com
RNC chair Ronna McDaniel has tested positive for coronavirus following Trump diagnosis	independent.co.uk
Trump’s Behavior Was ‘Brazen Invitation’ for the Coronavirus, Pelosi Says	thedailybeast.com
Trump, first lady positive for virus; he has 'mild symptoms'	apnews.com
Trump, first lady positive for virus; he has ‘mild symptoms’	apnews.com
Donald Trump has 'mild symptoms' after contracting coronavirus	news.sky.com
President Donald Trump's coronavirus infection draws international sympathy and a degree of schadenfreude	eu.usatoday.com
Gretchen Whitmer: Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis 'wakeup call to every single American'	freep.com
Kushner, Ivanka Trump test negative for COVID-19	thehill.com
Tracking Trump: Where the president was and who he came in contact with before announcing his positive coronavirus test	marketwatch.com
Of Course Donald Trump Got Covid	newrepublic.com
Trump has ‘mild symptoms’ after testing positive for COVID-19	wkow.com
Trump and Melania test positive for Covid.	foxnews.com
Leftists Cheer News Trump, Hope Hicks Infected With COVID-19: ‘I Hope They Both Die’	dailywire.com
White House coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas reacts to Trump's coronavirus diagnosis, says 'zero reason to panic'	foxnews.com
Piers Morgan rips mockery of Trump after contracting COVID-19: 'No better than the man they loathe'	thehill.com
Trump Has ‘Mild Symptoms’ After He and First Lady Test Positive for COVID-19	nbcnewyork.com
US stocks slump after Trump tests positive for virus	bostonglobe.com
Trump’s test shows how Covid-19 might threaten Barrett confirmation	rollcall.com
UK bookmakers stop taking bets on US election after Trump gets Covid-19	edition.cnn.com
WATCH: Trump ignored the science and his own experts on coronavirus — now he's tested positive for COVID-19, while more than 200,000 Americans have died	businessinsider.com
Pelosi: Trump Flouting COVID-19 Guidelines Was 'A Brazen Invitation For This To Happen' - The president, who said he tested positive early Friday, has downplayed the COVID-19 pandemic, even as more than 200,000 Americans have died.	huffpost.com
Trump Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett tests negative for coronavirus	thehill.com
Trump’s pre-spin seems to blame military, police interactions for coronavirus diagnosis	washingtonpost.com
How Many People Has Donald Trump Already Infected With COVID-19?	vanityfair.com
Concern over Biden's possible exposure to COVID-19 after Trump tests positive	abcnews.go.com
RNC chairwoman tests positive for coronavirus after she was with President Trump, who has COVID	nydailynews.com
Donald Trump's Positive COVID-19 Announcement Becomes His Most Liked Tweet Ever	newsweek.com
Hicks, hubris and not a lot of masks: the week Trump caught Covid	theguardian.com
'We continue to pray': Joe Biden offers thoughts, prayers to President Trump for speedy recovery after coronavirus test	usatoday.com
Nancy Pelosi says Trump’s behavior was ‘brazen invitation’ after COVID-19 infection	nypost.com
Pelosi says Trump's actions were a 'brazen invitation' for a positive COVID-19 test, calls his diagnosis 'very sad' and 'tragic'	businessinsider.com
Conspiracy theorists believe Trump is using COVID results to postpone the election — Many online are calling b.s. amid the shocking news.	dailydot.com
A Steelworker Who Sat In The Debate Hall On Trump’s Positive Coronavirus Test: “It’s Frustrating”	buzzfeednews.com
President Trump showing mild symptoms after testing positive for COVID-19: officials	nydailynews.com
Mitch McConnell says the next presidential debate could be held remotely via videoconference after Trump tests positive for COVID-19	businessinsider.com
Trump experiencing mild Covid symptoms: Why the first week matters	nbcnews.com
Trump had close contact with "dozens" on trip after White House learned he was exposed to COVID-19. Trump traveled to a fundraiser after Hope Hicks already tested positive and he was "feeling poorly"	salon.com
Trump Kept Regular Schedule After Learning Close Aide Had Covid	bloomberg.com
Map: President Trump’s travels the week he tested positive for Covid-19	nbcnews.com
QAnon, the far-right, and some left-wingers are all spreading conspiracies about Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis	businessinsider.com
GOP donors panic after coming close to Trump at fundraiser hours before his positive Covid-19 test	cnbc.com
Trump experiencing "mild symptoms" of the Coronavirus	newsday.com
Biden, Harris express wishes for speedy 'recovery' after Trump's positive coronavirus test	foxnews.com
Trump and Melania 'paid the price': Chinese propaganda mocks president after COVID-19 diagnosis - The editor-in-chief of one of China's state-run media outlets suggested that President Donald Trump and the US first lady, Melania Trump, "paid the price" by contracting the coronavirus.	businessinsider.com
Putin sends Trump a telegram to wish him speedy recovery from COVID-19: agencies cite Kremlin (Reuters)	reuters.com
Trump coronavirus: Pence ‘praying for full recovery’ of president and first Lady Melania after positive test	independent.co.uk
After Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis, Trump, Biden appearances in Arizona next week unclear	azcentral.com
Trump’s coronavirus infection is an indictment of his approach to the pandemic - The diagnosis is another reminder of his administration’s failure on Covid-19.	vox.com
“No one knows where this is going to go”: Pandemonium inside the White House as Trump contracts COVID-19	vanityfair.com
Trump experiencing mild symptoms from COVID-19	telegraph.co.uk
Judge Amy Coney Barrett tests negative for COVID-19 after Trump contracts virus	nydailynews.com
President Trump apparently has COVID-19	thebulletin.org
Stocks Fall After Trump Tests Positive for Covid-19	nytimes.com
Twitter users predicted Trump's October COVID-19 diagnosis	dailydot.com
White House learned of Hicks's positive test before Trump left for fundraiser: Meadows	thehill.com
[GOP donors 'freaking out' after coming close to Trump at fundraiser hours before his positive Covid-19 test](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/gop-donors-panic-after-coming-close-to-trump-at-fundraiser-hours-before-positive-covid-19-test.html?__source=sharebar	twitter&par=sharebar)
Chris Wallace Says He's Getting Tested for Coronavirus After Being Exposed to Trump During Debate — "I don't think there's any question it's going to raise questions again about how seriously the president has taken the coronavirus," Wallace said Friday.	people.com
Trump's Covid diagnosis upends campaign, presents challenge for Biden — "This election isn't about Trump getting Covid, it's about America getting Covid," one Democratic strategist said.	nbcnews.com
Trump tests positive for COVID-19: Trump 'feeling mild symptoms,' but 'energetic'; Bidens praying for Trumps - live updates	usatoday.com
At 74 and obese, Covid-19 could be very serious for Donald Trump	telegraph.co.uk
John Cleese Revels in Donald Trump's COVID-19 Diagnosis — The 'Monty Python' icon has made it clear in the past he is not a fan of the president's and often criticizes him via social media.	hollywoodreporter.com
What Trump’s Positive Coronavirus Test Means for the Presidential Campaign	newyorker.com
Pelosi: Trump Flouting COVID-19 Guidelines Was ‘A Brazen Invitation For This To Happen’	m.huffpost.com
The Surprising Leftists Who Actually Wished Trump Well After COVID Diagnosis	townhall.com
How Will Trump’s Positive COVID-19 Test Affect The Election?	fivethirtyeight.com
Trump campaign did not notify Biden of positive coronavirus test	thehill.com
President Trump has ‘mild symptoms’ after testing positive for the coronavirus	opb.org
Trump downplayed Hope Hicks' Covid diagnosis on Fox hours before announcing he also tested positive	cnn.com
Mary Trump Slams President After Coronavirus Diagnosis: ‘Wear a F*cking Mask’	thedailybeast.com
Trump's age and weight could put him at higher risk for severe coronavirus infection	cbsnews.com
Will Trump’s COVID-19 Infection Change the Way He Manages the Pandemic? It Didn’t for the Leaders of Brazil and the U.K.	time.com
Trump's busy week before his positive Covid-19 test – in pictures - US news	theguardian.com
Timeline of Donald Trump’s activities in week coronavirus hit home	mlive.com
Global stocks fall, dollar gains after Trump gets coronavirus	uk.reuters.com
The latest coronavirus test results for Trump’s advisers and allies	washingtonpost.com
Sen Rob Portman, Rep Jim Jordan, Jon Husted will get COVID tests after being around Donald Trump	beaconjournal.com
Trump’s coronavirus infection is the result of his deadly, foolish recklessness	latimes.com
Positive! Trump’s Covid Bungling Now Takes a Personal Toll	thenation.com
Boris Johnson, who almost died of covid-19, wishes Trump a ‘speedy recovery’	washingtonpost.com
Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a 'Hoax'?	snopes.com
The world was already in chaos before Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis, and now there is more uncertainty than ever	businessinsider.com
Joe Biden has tested negative for coronavirus after Trump tests positive	vox.com
Trump says he and first lady have tested positive for the coronavirus	washingtonpost.com
Trump has coronavirus: Biden tests negative for COVID-19 after sharing debate stage with president - WATCH LIVE	abc7ny.com
'Not a Tragic Accident—A Crime Scene': Critics Say Trump Covid Diagnosis a 'Culmination' of His Deadly Pandemic Response	commondreams.org
After Trump's Positive Test, Here's The Status Of The Line Of Succession	npr.org
Trump suggested US troops or police were to blame for infecting White House staff just before he tested positive for COVID-19	businessinsider.com
Democratic nominee Joe Biden tests negative for coronavirus after potential exposure, Trump's diagnosis	cnbc.com
Schumer demands Senate coronavirus testing program after Trump diagnosis	thehill.com
Flights for Donald Trump's Wisconsin rallies canceled after president tests positive for COVID-19	madison.com
Joe Biden tests negative for coronavirus after Trump tests positive	businessinsider.com
Trump's coronavirus diagnosis guarantees this election will be about everything he has tried to avoid	cnn.com
The stock market's fear gauge surges 12% after President Trump tests positive for COVID-19	news.sky.com
Trump Team Knew of Hicks’ Positive Test—but Went Ahead With Golf Club Fundraiser	thedailybeast.com
InfoWars’ DeAnna Lorraine Claims ‘the Left’ May Have Given Trump COVID-19 Through His Debate Mic	rightwingwatch.org
Getting COVID-19 Is Probably Not a Brilliant Ploy for Sympathy That Will Boost Trump’s Reelection Chances	slate.com
House Probe Into Trump's Failed Covid-19 Response Shows "Unprecedented, Coordinated" Political Interference	commondreams.org
This Republican senator is the early leader for worst take on Trump's coronavirus diagnosis	cnn.com
Chris McDonald ‘Wouldn’t Put it Past’ Democrats to Infect Trump With COVID-19 to Stop the Presidential Debates	rightwingwatch.org
Trump supporter potentially exposed to COVID-19 from RNC chair's visit	cincinnati.com
GOP senator on Judiciary panel tests positive for Covid-19 days after meeting with Trump's nominee	cnn.com
Today’s coronavirus news: Ontario sets new record with 732 reported cases; Trump, first lady test positive for virus; Biden tests negative	thestar.com
[Politico] Trump coronavirus diagnosis leaves lawmakers exposed	politico.com
RNC chair Ronna McDaniel says she has COVID-19, hours after Trump	6abc.com
Nancy Pelosi Says Donald Trump's Actions Were 'Brazen Invitation' to Catch COVID	newsweek.com
Trump Has Repeatedly Downplayed COVID-19. What Will He Do Now That He Has It?	buzzfeednews.com
No, Trump Isn’t Faking COVID In A Master Scheme To Vanquish Biden	talkingpointsmemo.com
Trump Could Only Ignore the Reality of Coronavirus for So Long	jacobinmag.com
Trump’s ‘positive for COVID-19’ tweet is his most ‘liked’ post ever	marketwatch.com
Trump’s refusal to wear a face mask is a catastrophe A face mask might have protected Trump — and the people around him — from the coronavirus.	vox.com
Schumer says Trump coronavirus diagnosis shows what happens 'when you ignore science'	foxnews.com
Sen. Mike Lee, who met with Trump Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett, tests positive for COVID-19	usatoday.com
Nancy Pelosi says continuity of government is ‘always in place’ after Trump tests positive for Covid-19	cnbc.com
Naomi Klein: I Fear Trump Will Exploit His COVID Infection to Further Destabilize the Election	democracynow.org
PolitiFact - Trump’s health and COVID-19: Here’s what we know	politifact.com
Confusion, concern infiltrate White House after Trump’s positive test	politico.com
Putin, Who Has Spent Almost Six Months In Isolation To Avoid The Coronavirus, Sent Trump A Get Well Note	buzzfeednews.com
Trumpworld delighted in cruelty. Now that Trump has COVID, it demands empathy.	businessinsider.com
Where Trump went (and who he was with) leading up to his coronavirus diagnosis	politico.com
Biden tests negative for COVID-19, reminds folks to 'wear a mask' after being mocked by Trump for mask at debate	usatoday.com

I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example.
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First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500.
Second, let’s make an important distinction:
Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for.
Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there.
Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop.
Determining the intrinsic value of an asset
The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead.
Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.”
PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n}
PV = present value
C = cash flow per period
n = number of payments
i = interest rate
G = growth rate
The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate.
C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS.
The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters.
I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years).
I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%.
This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence.
Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar!
I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down.
Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%.
So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds).
Due diligence still has to occur
Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company:
-Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion.
-What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here.
-What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company.
-Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut.
-Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great.
-Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break.
So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in.
Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out.
You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value.
You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them.
A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are.
Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely
That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history.
If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts.
Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations.
I am available for questions in the comments

Paysafe is about to merge w/ BFT, hopefully sometime this quarter and as most of you know, it is a digital payments company. Payoneer, is rumored to be possibly merging w/ FTOC and also is a digital payments company.
So why are digital payments a big deal? Well, digital payments are expected to impact 80% of existing banking revenue and be a $7.6 TRILLION industry by 2024. Furthermore, it is expected that current digital payment companies including both Paysafe and Payoneer will experience double digit annual growth over the next 10 years. Or more specifically, a CAGR of 14.2% as a sector.
But there are already big names like SQ & PYPL, why would I want to buy into Paysafe or Payoneer? The answer is simple. The rate at which digital payments are expanding, there is almost infinite growth for companies who can position themselves by having a niche or corner markets in other countries. And when investing you are looking for both growth and scale.
Paysafe currently specializes in payment processing, API, Online payments, gambling payments, Dig Payment Interation w/ Business, Receipts and managing them, fraud detection, automated billing, multiple currency support, mobile payments and currency conversion.
Payoneer currently specializes in Single & Mass Payments, Partner Networking, Receiving Payments, Multi-Currency Support & Integrated Payment systems, digital marketing, ecommerce.
Paysafe acquires revenue based on a sliding scale or a high volume client rate. Where as Payoneer operates on a flat fee percentage.
Paysafe is expected to have $1.5 billion in revenue this year while Payoneer is expected to have around $300 million. Paysafe is obviously the bigger company, so we should skip investing in Payoneer, right? Not soo fast, just because they are currently smaller now, doesn't mean they won't be a billion dollar revenue producing company in 5 years. And that means lots of growth in both valuation and market cap, meaning, your stock price erupts with the growth.
Payoneer and Paysafe both have big name clients. Too many to list, but Payoneer supports Amazon, Google, Adobe and AirBNB. Paysafe has clients such as Playstation, Steam, Skype & Facebook. So both have big name clients and names paying the bills currently.
So which one should you buy? While Payoneer is a strong and a growing international player who is rapidly expanding in India, Japan, Phillipines, South Korea and the UK and although a much smaller company, it has some big name customers. Also note that Payoneer has tripled its revenue over the last 5 years. And on the other hand, Paysafe too has solid customers, much greater revenue and it too is positioned to grow quickly in the digital payments world.
Well, the answer seems simple. BFT is the safer bet and is about to close their reverse merger any day now. It's selling for a bit over $15 right now while FTOC is at a bit under $12. Both are based on a NAV of $10. On the other hand, for those of you comfortable with risk, buying FTOC on speculation before the DA/LOI are signed and announced could very likely result in you making $2-$4 share on the announcement alone.
Another thing to consider as well, is that BFT offers one of the largest gambling wallets in the world. Why is that important? Well, lots of states and govt's are feeling the effects of C-19 on their coffers from the lack of tax dollars and are either rolling back regulation or writing in new regulations so they can benefit from gambling tax dollars. I expect that to greatly expand Paysafes revenues and profitability as gambling carries higher fees than traditional services.
I do feel that both PayoneeFTOC & BFT/Paysafe will continue to expand rapidly, most likely dwarfing the anticipated 14.2% CAGR and that they have a strong chance of tripling in size AGAIN over the next 5 years as digital payments snowball.
So bottom line, digital payments are in the golden age of expansion and both of these companies are poised to enjoy their share of that expansion and while neither company seems to be knocking the others bottom out w/ a Donkey Punch, Paysafe is the larger of the two. BFT/Paysafe seems like a sure thing, while FTOC/Payoneer is the riskier play until the DA/LOI are signed. But as usual, with greater risk, comes greater reward.
Disclosure: I am long on both BFT/Paysafe & FTOC/Payoneer.

I have seen (TSX: FIRE) (OTCQX: SPRWF) get a lot of hype the last few days. It has been the second most actively traded stock on the TSX in the last ten days. They also have a ticker that is literally 🔥 and a brand name that is ultimately supreme. I couldn’t think of a bettedouchier name and ticket for a Cannabis company.

Now the question is, should we buy into the hype?

First, what is $FIRE?
$FIRE = the Supreme Cannabis Company produces marijuana under the banner of its wholly-owned subsidiary 7 Acres. They have a 440,000 square Cultivation facility. They also claim to have a robust R&D and genetics program, advance processing and automated packaging capabilities, and is Health Canada licensed for the sale of cannabis 2.0 products. They claim they have emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing, premium plant driven-lifestyle company by effectively deploying capital to build a diversified portfolio of successful cannabis brands. I personally feel like every Cannabis company says the same thing so that’s nothing new.
Long story short, Supreme grow and hold Cannabis supplies their partners who produce specific products. Their partners are 7Acres, Blissco, Truverra, Sugar Leaf and Hiway (see picture below).
In FY2020, Supreme Cannabis brought +35 cannabis consumer products to 10 provinces across Canada, formed an industry leading sales partnership, maintained a strong wholesale business and completed its first international medical cannabis export.

Here is a screenshot of what each “partner” is licensed to sell and where they can sell it.

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All of them look like relatively decent partners that produce product and supply it to primarily Canada. They got licensed in 2019 to sell cannabis oil, weird that the stock dropped so much after that. Weed stock hype died down the last year I think, but with the resurgence I feel like this stock is in a decent position.
Summary: Looks pretty run of the mill, nothing revolutionary, nothing bad. At least they have partners, a product and a decent grow operation.

Financials:

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https://preview.redd.it/zw8ze7o8dwf61.png?width=2612&format=png&auto=webp&s=c069d60dfc3a424ae19c653ced14c4b03de4dfa8
Comparing FIRE to other major and small cap weed companies there is nothing overly concerning/amazing. Fire did post a loss in its most recent financial year of CA$139m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of CA$93m shrinking the gap between loss and breakeven. Note they did offer a big 100m fundraiser to generate capital for new partnerships, expansion.
I personally am of the belief that you need to attack to grow a business. Especially in crowded sectors such as Cannabis. I would rather see them look to create change and shake it up. You NEED to do something after having your market cap shrink as much as they have. Also keep in mind losses aren’t inherently bad as a company needs to invest to grow, but they do they to post positive earnings. They have their earnings coming up soon, so this is where momentum can change, if they can post a good quarter, I feel like the stock could explode. They are projected to grow 77.82% per year, plus the CEO has a good track record so it looks promising (more of that below).
But do note do not have a ton of cash to keep them fluid, so this earnings report is super important. They’ve missed their last four quarters and they need to start producing some profit.
Their earnings report will be announced Feb 11, 2021. People might be accumulating and generating hype on the hope of a good earnings report. This is similar to what happened with $SCR. Score absolutely blew up after they had a good earnings report after several consecutive quarters at a loss. Keep in mind this isn’t always the case (just look at AMD).
Summary: If you're willing to wager on this earnings reports being positive, this is nothing to worry about. If you're super adverse to risk, I would maybe stay away. Could be huge upside, but it is a gamble.

Team:

April 27, 2020 the company made a wise move, bringing in Beena The Beauty Goldenberg: Beena is now President & CEO of Supreme Cannabis Company. Goldenberg brings 30 years of CPG experience to her roles at Supreme. For the last 15 years, she worked in the natural and organics space. As the CEO of Hain-Celestial Canada, she grew the business from approximately $40 million to over $300 million by the time she left in 2020.
Here is a statement of Beena speaking pure fire about fire:

I joined Supreme Cannabis as President & CEO in April because I was drawn to the Company’s focus on quality – not just in our products, practices, and facilities – but in the emphasis our people place on continuous improvement across the organization. Since joining, I have seen us make significant progress in transforming ourselves into a premier cannabis CPG company.

It looks like Beena the beauty is in here to shake things up and bring some growth to this company. She noted that 2020 was a tough year for Cannabis growth, but it is clear a lot of investors are bullish on its opportunity in 2021. She came in and made some tough choices which I like, such as restructuring the organizational model, and adjusting the assumed valuations on parts of the business. Good to hear she made some cuts, shook things up and is looking to bring FIRE back to it’s 2018 hype.
I didn’t look into the rest of the team too much, they all look pretty run of the mill executives. If someone wants to look more into the team it would be appreciated.
Otherwise they have a 400 employee team everything looks pretty granola for the size of their operation.
Summary: In Beena the beauty we trust.

Now that you probably know more about FIRE than your degree, the big question is wether there is news to support the recent price action/drive up more in the future?

• Playing with B2B sales. They struck an agreement with Breath of Life International Ltd. to offer Truverra-branded premium medical cannabis to patients in Israel. To date, we have made three shipments of medical cannabis through the agreement. This “capitallight” approach further diversifies our revenue and builds Truverra as a global medical brand.
• ^ This is good because it shows they’re looking for international partners. This is where the real money is IMO, especially if legislation starts to change around the world regarding Cannabis products.
• Earnings on Feb 11
• ^ Gamble, I feel like it will be better, but if it isn’t great, I think the price will take a beating again. If it’s good 🚀
• I’m sure they’re seeking out more partners, opportunity for growth, new CEO is making the right moves. They just need to get their earnings up.
• Opportunity for mergers is another positive option.
• u/Hunterston noted that PepsiCo & Monsanto may have invested interests in the stock. He claims that BOL Pharma got their foot in the canadian market thru Supreme. supreme has sent 4 shipments to them and BOL afterwards sent a shipment to the UK with outstanding results. Potential shipments to Australia? I suspect we can learn a lot on the earnings call so we'll see if this is all true. This could further pump price action.

TDLR
Should you buy? I will buy. I am not comfortable YOLO’ing in this company but I feel like there is decent upside. It really depends on this earnings report, if you get in early you could get some great returns but you could also be investing in a dying company. They aren’t an insanely healthy company, so I would go into this with some skepticism. I have personally been looking for a decent weed play and I feel like this is as good as any for earning potential.
They have a product, earnings, and partnerships + plans, I can definitely see this company experiencing some growth. So much of this is dependant on earnings and it’s a decent company, but it isn’t really revolutionary. The weed sector is still new and so pillared to regulation. Governments are going to be looking for new $ after all the stimulus they’ve been giving so they should be more accepting of emerging sectors, but ultimately bureaucracy does what it will.
I’m not going to lie, one decent reason to buy is their branding. I can just see a lot of you shmelts getting fired up about FIRE because of the ticker and the company name supreme. I know this isn’t the most sound financial logic, but this is memorable and because of the low market cap, unique branding and potential, I can see it getting pumped by communities and P2P conversations.
I am not a financial advisor, make your own educated decisions, but I will likely be buying 5-10k shares to hold for a few years. Hopefully this helped 🚀 🚀 🚀

Nikola saw another stock crash yesterday, while Alibaba’s stock plunges after-hours with increased pressure from the regulators. Some news about DKNG, PENN and other stock market news for today.
~Very Long Post~
Hello everyone and Good Morning! First of all, I wanted to wish to everyone happiness, peace and prosperity this upcoming Christmas, hope you are all doing well, Merry Christmas everyone.
And let’s start with the recap of yesterday as we saw the Dow Jones leading the way, finishing up .38%, with the broad market SP500 also barely finishing in the green for the day up .07% and the Nasdaq Composite finishing in the red .29%.
We also saw the VIX dropping again today by 3.8% despite being even lower but seeing a pop in the last hours of trading with a spike of more than 4% with more uncertainty being created in the Congress after Trump vetoed the defense bill, as he continued to distract the attention from the big number of pardons he keeps giving out, with the latest round bringing the total to almost 50 in the past week.
More than 60% of the companies were gaining yesterday with over 200 new highs, but the volume was relatively low in this shortened trading week, as 8 of the 11 SP sectors were gaining yesterday with Energy and Financials gaining more than 1.6% with Financials gaining a boost as the Treasury yields pushed up and the curve continues to steepen, while the laggards were Real Estate, Technology and Utilities as value plays especially small and mid-caps outperformed yesterday, with the large-cap growth companies finishing the day down by more than half a percent.
You can see this exact thing in this HEAT MAP as the 3 biggest companies in the world, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft, finished the day down more than 0.6%. You can also see that most of the gains were concentrated in the banks and oil & gas industry while the rest of the market was pretty much mixed with companies like Tesla, Google, Facebook having small gains, while others like Zoom, Netflix, Airbnb and many more suffered.
Yesterday we also got the AAII SURVEY that shows how investors were feeling last week. This time we don’t get any good news as this is a contrarian indicator, as people started to move from a bearish sentiment to a more neutral sentiment with more than 4% of investors moving from a bearish view to a neutral view, with only a .1% increase in bullish investors last week, as the stimulus bill seemed to be finally agreed on before Trump making new headlines this week again with the Veto of the NDAA.
Meanwhile we also got tons of economic data yesterday starting with initial and continuing jobless claims as initial claims came in way lower than expected just over 800K, down almost 90K from the previous week and falling to a 3-week low, with the continuing jobless claims also dropping to 5.3M, lower than last week and what was expected from the analysts.
We also saw the durable goods number coming in better than expected with a .9% increase, up for the 7th straight month, while house PRICES rose nationwide by 1.5% in October from the previous month, which continued to push house prices higher by more than 10% since last year, with home SALES falling in November but are still up over 20% year over year as the median sales price of new houses continued to trend up.
Alongside this we saw the final consumer sentiment read slipping in December to 80.7, lower than expected but higher than the 76.9 in November, with the November Personal INCOME coming worse than expected, losing 1.1% from the previous month.
In contrast, today we don’t really get any critical economic data and the stock market closes early.
So, we saw Nikola take another stumble yesterday, after the whole Apple & Tesla disruption as we saw the stocks drop more than 10% again yesterday and is down more than 26% since I made my prediction and just hit my first price target, here is the link to that post.
Nikola shares skid yesterday again after another deal for the company fell, as that meant the termination of the deal with Republic Services to develop an electric garbage truck for them. The deal was expected to have Nikola produce over 2500 trucks for the company. So, I would trim my sell position on Nikola here, while leaving some for my next target, with that target being a drop in the single digits in the future for the company.
In some other stock market news, we saw Alibaba shares plummeting again more than 8% on the Hong Kong exchange and more than 7% in pre-market in the US by now, after more pressure has been put on the company as the Chinese authorities are continuing to pursue anti-monopolistic investigations on the company while also continuing the investigation on Ant Group which is an affiliate of Alibaba as they hold more than 1/3 of the company. I think these investigations are very likely to come out with fines and structural changes on how the company will work with its subsidiaries and affiliates, and that the high flying, record-breaking, Ant Group IPO will likely be postponed for a longer period until they meet regulators requirements as it is expected that Ant Group will be given some guidelines to follow by the regulators. My personal belief is that Alibaba is a great company and it should trade higher than this, but until this whole mess with the authorities clears, anything can happen as you can see in this CHART, as the stock has underperformed since Ant Group canceled the IPO, with my long-term price target for Alibaba being 300$, but I wouldn’t go to heavy on this trade right now.
Enough of Alibaba, meanwhile we also saw XL Fleet jumping huge yesterday after the usual short-seller Citron, indicated that there is still more upside for this company.
And one final piece of news is that Colorado set another record for wagers in November, this is another confirmation of the gambling tailwinds that will skyrocket companies like DraftKings & PENN Gaming higher in the next years.
Let’s hope for a good day in the market as the FUTURES seem to be pointing at a good open, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way, while the European Union and UK are finally nearing a deal for Brexit, and remember there are only 5 trading sessions left in 2020 with today also being a short-day of trading.
Also, don’t forget this is usually when one of the best 7-day period for gains happens, with an average return of 1.33% and a 77% chance of that happening since 1950. But be careful, not every year is a winner, you can see here some examples, with 1999 being a very bad year as the dot com bubble approached, with another bad year coinciding with the start of the financial crisis. Hopefully this will be the 5th straight year with a positive return in this period.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

First-time traders are getting a free financial education on YouTube, but not everyone is as they seem:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/02/13/inside-murky-world-investment-advice-youtube/
Alternative link to article: https://archive.vn/qLxkd
edit - added full article text
Kayla Kilbride decided to teach herself how to trade during a dinner at her family home in Los Angeles last November. Her sisters had been showing her their smartphones, displaying recent winnings on the trading app Robinhood and the conversation around the table kept turning to stocks.
Unemployed and in the midst of the pandemic, the 24-year-old quickly became hooked, waking up at 4.30am to study the markets before they opened, watch YouTube tutorials and simulating trades for six hours a day, four days a week.
“When I first heard the words bullish and bearish I had to Google them,” Kilbride says. “YouTube has been the most educational platform for me, which is so funny. I never thought I'd ever say that.”
Kilbride is one of hundreds of thousands of young people bored and stuck at home turning to YouTube to learn the tricks of the trade. Apps like Robinhood, WeBull, ThinkorSwim and eToro have allowed anyone to buy and sell shares and financial instruments, but many have no idea what they are doing. Top trading channels have up to half a million subscribers each, and live streams of traders studying their screens are watched by thousands at a time.
Some are drawn by clips that attract clicks with colourful thumbnail images showing the presenter surrounded by dollar emojis and green arrows pointing up. Titles like “How one 19-year-old took his brokerage account to $187,000 (£135,000) in two months”, “How I made $1,000 in 25 minutes, and “This stock is about to explode!” promise stories of traders having fun and making fortunes at the same time.
One teenage YouTuber known as Biaheza regularly posts about the money he makes on trading apps Robinhood and WeBull to his 725,000 subscribers.
In one, he lets a stray cat decide whether he should buy $10,000 worth of Tesla puts or calls - leveraged options betting against and for the stock respectively - by placing the words “puts” and “calls” on a piece of paper placed under two dishes. The cat picked puts, Tesla shares went down, and Biaheza made $1,000.
This week, the 19-year-old shared a video in which he borrowed $70,000 from Robinhood to place on Tesla, eventually making himself $5,000.
Reddit, a very different social network, has been put at the centre of the GameStop bonanza that rattled markets last month. But YouTube also lit up with videos explaining or promoting the phenomenon. One of the heroes of the saga was Roaring Kitty, a YouTuber who also worked as a financial advisor. A Massachusetts securities regulator is now investigating whether the trader, real name Keith Gill, broke securities rules by advising which stocks to buy. Arguably YouTube's broadcasts have more power over the market than forums because they hit the web as a finished product that cannot be altered, allowing one skilled presenter to broadcast to many.
Tom Sosnoff, who sold his brokerage ThinkorSwim to TD Ameritrade for $606m in 2009, has since become a hit on YouTube with his Tasty Trades channel becoming a stop-off for more risky investment strategies.
Tasty Trades is focused on grey area instruments, like leverage, options and futures. Financial experts warn that these are challenging, high risk and can be low reward. Sosnoff, says the interest in alternative trading is a reaction to the tedium of traditional financial TV.
“There was a demand for intelligent, challenging financial content, because to me, Bloomberg and CNBC and places like that were full of stuff that anybody can watch, but it wasn't intellectually challenging,” he says. “Who cares what somebody else thinks? Who cares what the news is? I'm not looking for somebody to repeat the news to me. I'm looking for somebody to explain to me how the markets work and how can I make this actionable.”
Kilbride, who now trades just one hour a day after finding a job, says YouTube creates more good than harm. When she decided to move from fake trades to real money she started small and, after one big loss, is now up around 20pc from a starting point of $500. But not everyone will take her measured approach.
“I think overall it's probably good for markets that more people are educating themselves and that you don’t need a fancy Ivy League degree to do it,” says Vincent Deluard, a macro strategist for the brokerage StoneX and Professor of finance at Saint Mary's College in California. “Information should be public.”
"The people who fall for the YouTube videos with the man standing by a fancy red car will lose money, that is just the way markets work."
Clem Chambers, chief executive of stocks, shares and cryptocurrency website ADVFN, says people are falling for “conspiracy theories” on YouTube that promise thousands of dollars. “They’re all rubbish,” he says.
Chambers, who has 30 years of trading experience, says he recognises a similar pattern as during the dotcom boom, which he says scared an entire generation off investing.
“It is a tragedy because investing in the stock market is one of the few ways a normal guy can become wealthy,” he says. “But there's a whole group of people that try to ensnare the beginner. There's a whole gauntlet of people that will strip the unwary of their money.”
eToro, a social trading app which is available in the UK, warns on its website that 67pc of retail trader accounts lose money. Even amateurs with a level head are likely to make 3pc gains at most. Those pushing between 5 and 10pc would be destined for some of the best firms in the world, not YouTube.
YouTube traders can still generate revenue from their streams even if they make a loss trading. Those with more than 10,000 views are eligible to receive a cut of YouTube's targeted advertising revenue. Many sell merchandise and some receive compensation for promoting trading apps.
“The problem is when you have got videos saying how to spot ‘hot stock’,” says Susannah Streeter, senior markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “It’s almost like it has become a game and people are treating the market like it is a form of entertainment, not a strategy.”
Ironically, Streeter says the vast amount of videos and user commentary on YouTube is helping the industry the presenters are trying to disrupt. “I would expect that hedge funds are analysing the YouTube videos that are being posted, as they are watching social media posts,” she says. With algorithms that take into account what is trending on Twitter, it should come as little surprise.
"YouTube is completely unregulated. When you get official investment advice published by a broker then the person publishing the advice is a licensed individual who is certainly culpable for the statements that they make.” says Kevin Mak, a lecturer at Stanford Graduate School of Business, “And that's not really the case for YouTube broadcasters.”
YouTube says it doesn’t allow “get rich quick” schemes but did not return the Telegraph’s inquiries into what it was doing to curb "pump-and-dump" schemes where an investor hypes to stock to sell at the peak.
As regulators will attest, it is incredibly hard to prove market manipulation. Many of the accounts that appear to be spamming comment sections with the names of certain stocks are pseudonymous. The Federal Trade Commission says it is keeping an eye on influencers who promote gambling, and British politicians have called on a ban of celebrities from Love Island and Geordie Shore promoting unregulated foreign exchange trading.
Vocal critics of the disruptors fear speaking out after a social media pile-on for anyone who dared to fault them. Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen left Twitter after his children received threats amid the GameStop backlash. Short-seller Andrew Left, whose company Citron was one of the hedge funds to spark the battle with small-time traders, said in a YouTube video last month that his company - once the anti-establishment - would no longer publish short-selling research.
Professor Joel Hasbrouck, Stern School of Business, New York University, says he occasionally finds teachings of value on YouTube, although these are few and far between.
“For better or for worse, YouTube is a repository of popular wisdom, experience and folklore,” he says. “It appeals to our affiliation tendencies. We're told that maybe if we all pull together on this one we can bend the market to our advantage,” he says.
This coordination would be prosecuted by British and US officials if it were arranged by two large banks and caught on trading room chat transcripts, he says. But don’t expect this Wild West to be tamed anytime soon.
“In this instance the players are small and dispersed,” he says, “and the coordination is loose and casual, so regulation seems unlikely.”