My VXX 101 was shared here so I figured I’d be helpful and post my other 101 and 102s from WSB*
some image links and stuff didn’t convert. I’ll clean it up later Original link:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ky9m34/unusual_options_activity_101_whale_watching_tips/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf ——————-
This is long, if you’re uninterested skip to the ten tips list or TLDR A while ago I started mixing unusual options activity into my gamblinginvesting. At first I lost a shitload of money chasing dumbass whales with zero plan, but now I actually have a pretty good feel for it. I still fuck up alot, but more often I do not fuck up. This is to help those of you who want to start chasing whales, or are at a basic level and want to do it better.
I'm using some plays from this week as examples because they are fresh in my mind and I have a couple screenshots.
Tools I use barchart in tandem with Unusual Whales. For barchart, you can honestly get by using their free version, you just can't sort as well. They have a free month trial too. I also pay the 20 bucks for Unusual Whales to confirm what I scan, and they have a good stocks volume standard deviation tool. I have zero affiliation to either, just saying what I use.
There are way more technical ways to do this, but I like to use my eyes to scan sporadically throughout the day like a boomer.
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Basic Concept * Long story short, you're ideally chasing the options purchases of what are, presumably, deep-pocketed individuals or institutions. UOA identifies certain options contract orders that are higher than the average daily contract order. For example, if the average daily option volume on an GME weekly is 4,000, and an option order enters for 4,000 or higher, it's flagged as unusual activity since it's a multiple of that daily average volume--sometimes it shows as multiple orders if "they" push through a few smaller purchases that produce heavy volume. MM are sneks who like to move in silence, which they can do with with stock positions via dark pools and the like. However, they can't get away with that with options activity--it all shows. That fact, young autist, is your slingshot against the institutional goliath.
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Hunting the Whale * So I've got my unusual options activity page open on barchart or wherever for the current day. I adjust the expiration date option so that the options I'm looking at don't expire past a couple weeks out (more on why later), then I'm ready to eye scan.
I typically start by looking for one of two things: 1) large clusters of orders that belong to one ticker or 2) sporadic orders for a ticker that consistently show up over a couple hours, but belong to non-hot, non-meme stonks that do NOT have earnings imminent. To make sure I'm looking at something potentially weird, I choose to exclude options that expire more than a couple weeks out.
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1) Clusters of orders—ABNB example * The way I scope it is kind of a tiered process. First, I'm looking to see if there are any clusters of orders that catch my eye on a quick scan. Second, I'm looking to see if those clusters of orders contain both calls AND puts, with some OTM activity and spreads preferred. Third, I look to see if the number of seperate call orders outweighs the number of put orders (or vice versa), and additionally I look to see if the volume of the calls drastically outweighs the volume of the puts (or vice versa).
Why? Because it helps you determine if the options order is just a hedge, or if it’s hedging against itself as it’s own position. This is super important so try to follow along-- most UOA is just institutions hedging; Mr. MM has a nice, busy life and fancy yacht and can't just exit his positions back and forth all day like a WSBer. He also has like a billion shares of his stonks, so if he dumps it when he's got paper hands it will siginficantly tank the value and cause a ripple effect. So, instead of hedging by dumping his shit, he hedges by adding OTM options against his position--next level fucking diamond hands. That would be the type of whale order from Mr. MM we don't want to follow. But, if Mr. MM buys 4,000 FB call options in a few blocks, and you see like 1,000 in FB puts go through right alongside it, the odds are that someone is betting big on FB and using the puts as a hedge, since the puts represent a smaller volume in the call/put ratio. Instead of the options being a hedge for a bigger stock position they hold, these types of option clusters indicate that the option order itself is the big, independent play, and it's hedging itself with lower volume order vs the higher volume (4,000 calls to 1,000 puts).
Then I do an easy confirmation. I check the tickers general trend the past week or so in a chart, do a news search on twitter of their ticker for news catalysts and sentiment, and google and YouTube to see if the crayola kids think it's a good nerd play.
Example: Here's the screenshot on some ABNB UOA I noticed and played this week.
It went to 200% and change within a couple hours, but I had unfortunate diamond hands and sold for about half that. ABNB UOA
So, this a softball. First, you can see that ABNB all of a sudden explodes with all these options showing up at 12:52–that's our cluster. Second, the clusters have both calls and puts in that minute timespan, with some put orders showing at the bottom of the cluster. Some of the calls are deep OTM, as far as 200c. Third, the call orders far outweigh the put orders in both amount and volume. Awwwww shit, looks like we got more than a hedge—we’re onto something.
Confirmation time: ABNB had been on a general uptrend, and I typically don't like to chase, but I combed twitter and saw their were rumors of the CEO speaking the following day, and that news had just broken of their DC booking cancellations. I looked back into the morning, and saw a few more unusual blocks, and a few more rolled in just after the cluster pictured above. Passed the smell test. Options bought, tendies gained.
Sparse Orders: SNAP example The same principles can apply to orders on tickers that pop up individual orders, not large clusters, which a) haven’t had much attention b) have been on a steep downtrend—this makes the order unusual, and/or c) seem to keep popping up in single orders over a few hours to a day.The same principles as above apply, but if you see these types of orders with very little time left until expiration, you can assume assume it's probably not a hedge. SNAP isn't the best example of the week because there wasn't a put order in this block. But, there was positive TA sentiment when I searched, SNAP had been on an oversold downtrend, and I don't have screenshots left of the better ones I saw and went after. Plus, importantly, IT WAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY (this is huge, EOD is prime time for AH news whales) SNAP UOA
A better example from this week though is SPCE, which had only a few orders sprinkled throughout the day, and one toward the end of the day which was DEEP, DEEP OTM expiring 1/15. *That’s a flag for us—sporadic listing throughout the day, OTM toward the end of the day. * BAM! EOD SPCE OTM calls sprinkle in, ARK invests to kick off AH, SPCE moons.
Sparse Orders Patterns: Connecting the dots on tech rebound with FB and SNAP Seeing the SNAP orders above sharpened my eyes that day to looking for a pattern with tech on the whole, since big tech had been so royally gaped the past week. I kept seeing FB options like this pop up
https://i.imgur.com/muVGtq2.jpg Sometimes you can put together sporadic listings and create a working theory based on a sector. Because this and similar FB orders were deep OTM and one day out, I knew there was a risk they could a hedge, but also knew that the tech sector was due for a rebound and saw SNAP posting sporadic OTM as well. So, I bought my options for each of those two another week out and closer to ATM (important, more below), to give the whale some breathing room in case was it was a hedge, even though the technicals agreed with the bounce. The whales were right, and it was an easy little overnight profit.
How I’ve Fucked Up 1:
Don’t get tricked by trends Although we like to believe institutions are ahead of the curve, often they are just trend-riding lemmings who follow what's already way, way up. They buy the top, just like WSB tardies such as yourself specialize in. So, when you see shit like this below, take a minute to think before you get excited: NIO UOA LIKE THIS WAS NONSTOP
It was the same for all the memes: PLUG, FCEL, MARA, and RIOT all week, dominating the orders. If something is already too popular, just stay away from it. You can ride something up, but when you see massive orders on shit that's already like 400% IV, just...don't.
How I’ve Fucked Up 2:*DO give the MM’s some breathing room Even if you’re confident in a move you see that is a few days out, extend your play a week or two further out minimum, and strike it closer to ATM. If you can't do either of those things because you can't afford the premium just skip that play and check back for something new later; I promise a better opportunity will arise. You can recover from bagholding, but you cannot recover from blowing your account on an incorrect 0DTE.
Breathing room is also important because often whales will have the news but not the exact timing. Two months ago I followed a DDOG whale on a Thursday 1DTE that expired worthless the next day. The following Monday (1 trade day later) DDOG made the announcement that rocketed them like 20%--if I'd given them a week's breathing room, it would've been a 15 bagger. Fucking F.
So, to review: look for order clusters or sporadic ticker orders that a) have a mix of calls and puts with one dominating the other b) unpopular tickers that have deep OTM or close expirations c) always check chatter afterward and fundamentals and d) try to put together a narrative of things that are related that catch your eye (this Monday's EV run or this Friday's tech bounce could be next week's airline dominance or cruiseline craze--connect the dots). Initially look for options expiring soon, as they indicate the most riskiness--and therefore confidence--if the MM is not hedging. Shop with a short term eye, buy with a long term choice.
10 Things That Will Help You Not GUH: 1) Monday and Friday morning/afternoon are the most accurate whale times, according to data from Unusual Whales 2) If you don't have PDT always save some spending power for EOD shopping 3) If you don't have PDT never, ever follow a whale with a weekly. Sometimes the news the whale bets on is a 'sell the news' event, and you won’t recover from a drop especially if there is IV crush involved. 4) Always give the whale breathing room by purchasing an expiration at least a week further out 4b) Always give the whale breathing room by going closer to ATM strikes than theirs 5) Sign up for barchart monthly trial (then continue it) and unusual whales--they're each like 20 bucks and thats way less than you spend on an FD. 6) You don't need to learn TA, but you need to check technicals on the tickers you want to chase--almost every major ticker has youtubers or fintwits giving their daily or weekly TA. This way you know if it's a proper breakout happening if the whale hits, and you're not just guessing at when to take profits. Remember, whales can buy wayyyyyyy OTM and sell for massive profit at any point--they aren’t bagholding a call until it's in the money like you are. You may be 10% up waiting for the next 80% GME day while your whale has sold at their target 5% profits on the play and is chillin. 7) Leave at least 10% of your account spending power free each day. I promise, the one time you go full boat you will see the most obvious whale play at the end of the day. Then you won't be able to do shit about it and you'll hate yourself when it's a 10 bagger overnight. Trust me. 8) Make sure the ticker you're chasing isn't just ER anticipation/bets. Always check earnings dates before buying. 9) Remember whales are people, so they can be stupid, too. Don't baghold a position that is clearly fucked for some news that looks unlikely to come. They are gambling addicts just like you, except they have more money. 10) Always take profits if you ask yourself if it's time to. If it's good enough to screenshot, it's good enough to close the position. Positions: Dumped a ton of stuff and loading up Tuesday because long weekends scare me, but saw some ineresting 2/5s I held including WKHSc PLTRc SPYc (1/19, 1/22) LMNDp And a couple tickers that I couldn’t post lol. also have AAPL and JD leaps
TLDR Use a service to follow whales so you can get ahead of announcements. Look for clusters of options activity that hedge themselves via call/put ratio, and do a legitimate check for TA and catalysts to confirm their moves. Never follow a whale into a weekly, but use weeklies are your best screener. I might do a pretty consistent DD post (a couple times a week) on what I’m seeing at the end of each day if there is interest, and if it’s not a day I don’t have a ton of real work. If something quick catches my eye I usually throw it up on my twitter @yourboymilt (there’s no notification thing on here mods, just trying to be helpful— not selling anything) I’ll also probably throw some more potential Monday positions on here over the weekend once I decide to do some more research. Later.
submitted by Hello Travellers, I hope y'all have a great day and a good time in Genshin Impact.
Me and my friend have been playing this game lately and have a very fun experience.
Expect one of mine friend that refuse to play. He lost interest instantly because it looks to similar to BOTW, is what he said. Can't blame him on that one. Haha.
Anyway, i'm just gonna stop beating around the bushes and telling what i concern about this game instead of praising it. It's not because i hate it, but praising the game, won't help the game become better since the current game state is filled with horrible system.
Before i start to explain why, I want to say that, this is an experience coming from players that reach AR35. And you don't need to become AR35 to felt this problem.
The first 20-30 hours in GI is without a doubt very enjoyable, you explore the world, unlocking tower like most ubisoft game, lol, solving puzzle, and making elemental combos. All that is good, but became useless and stale once you reach AR30.
Once you reach AR30, you will notice that materials become harder to get, tons of domain appeared but the Resin are not enough to cover it all. You farm artifact on Stormterror domain but get awful drop, even Wolf run is also bad drop, yet Mihoyo decide to limit it with weekly timer.
What i'm saying is, as someone who play this game, and invest in it, I'm pretty much lose interest to put more time in it, since the endgame are non-existent. Or more accurately, SLOWED-down by the RESIN system.
I'm aware that mihoyo previous game is HI3, and they intend to put some of mechanic in here. In this case is Resin and Gacha. But heed my word Mihoyo.
If you intent to keep PC players like us. That rarely play mobile game or gacha game, because we know how toxic it was. How time-gating it is when it comes to progression. With the current resin system, we will leave the game without a doubt.
Also keep in mind that we're not freeloaders, we spent your shop even it have an awful rates because we enjoy when we have things to do. But when the game progression need resin, but resin are limited. We lose motivation to keep going because the game just don't want us to progress unless we paid resin with primogem. (seriously. lol).
From what i see right now, Genshin still have things to do, for us, as a gamers that play PC games a lot. But it's unplayable due to resin system. We don't need tons of skipping dialog quest, what we need is the feeling of "freedom", able to progress what we want, when we want.
IMO resin system is really unacceptable in this game, it's an open world, but you can't progress without resin, so why bother explore the world then?
So what's the solution?
You either make the resin regen faster, so you can still monetize it.
Or give us 3-4 daily resin regen item, so you can still monetize it. (what a greed).
Or remove it completely, since it's not a system that brings JOY to players at all. It just a limitation that leads player to frustration. Thus quiting your game and you have 1 less player to make profit of.
Please, Mihoyo, Just reduce your greed man. Haha.. it's not that hard.
This game have 10M players registration. Just imagine 8M of them buy Monthly pass.
That alone already made 40Million! And we're not covering the gacha for whale, battle pass, and upcoming skin yet.
The 2nd problem in this game had is the gacha system and poor monetization. Currently i've put 500 USD in this game for battle pass, monthly subs, and wishes.
And let me tell you, i regretted it. Supporting the dev is a must, but when the wishes pull is awful.
I can't say i'm happy putting my money in there.
I know whales put more money than me, 500 USD is nothing in gacha.
But i rarely gambling, it's not easy to make me become an addict.
That's why, spending 500 USD just to get a 1-2 five star character is really stupid for myself.
And please stop saying that they need GACHA, since it's F2P.
There's a lot of F2p that thriving till today without gacha system.
Valorant, Path of Exile, Warframe, etc.
And what's even worse, Genshin Impact monetize the heck out of this game, from SKIN (future), battle pass, Gacha, Monthly subs, and even RESIN they MTX it. God damn. I didn't realize that Mihoyo are trying to surpass EA. or Maybe they already did.
Third problem i had is MAXED Constellation character. The fact that we can get MAXED Constellation character in wishes, is a joke.
And what do we get from that? A 5 piece of token that can be exchange for an item, or buy another pieces of wishes.
This system is really2 bad. I can't see myself sticking this game for a long time if this mechanic remain the same. Maxed Constellation shouldn't be a thing other than making your spender suffer more.
Solution? Every dupe character will become an item to constellation other character. Simple right?
If we have 5 bottle of 4* constellation thing, allow us to combine it and become a single bottle of constellation that can be used for 5 star. The fact that that mihoyo chose the block constellation on wishes only, and maxed constl still appear in wishes. Is a proof of how greedy and unfriendly it's towards their customer.
For those who will reply this thread by saying it's a mobile game, so accept it or duh... Well, broh... it's not. This game is trying to appeal to massive gamers, that's why it release on PC, Switch, and PS4. They even introduce this game as an open world and inviting us to explore their world. That is not a gacha mobile game. Unless they intend to normalize this culture, where open world are filled with this awful progression and monetization design.
There are still some point that i want to express how awful it's like chest, enemy design, awful BP design, and coop. But i'm just to lazy to type right now. Even with those 3 points alone, i can already see tons of hate is coming towards me since most game reddit thread are always, and will be, filled with fans that can't take criticism.
I know people didn't like their beloved game getting trashed on, but i'm not a freeloader, i'm not a player that only play 10 min and rage. I have played tons of hours and spent more than a casual players. I want this game to be better, that's why i voice my concern. Denying us, Yelling at us, angry at us, will not stop, nor change the awful part of this beautifully crafted world.. cough cough botw.
So yeah, i enjoy the game thoroughly. But changes are need if this game want PC gamers keep playing the game. Otherwise, only mobile gamers that tolerate such awful system will be the one remain in this game, they will be the one that Mihoyo can profit from. Thus, Rendering your promotion for bigger audience become a big waste.
P.S. : I saw a lot of people saying that "even if they remove the resin system, I will still complain for the lack of content." For that, i will say that it's really not OK to make own assumption without knowing each other in real life.
Suppose that resin system is really removed from the game.
Well then, we'll be happy once we MAX out all of our character. :D
For example, me and my friend play Monster Hunter World.
Once we reach the top gear, we just wander around the world, helping newbie.
We understand that creating new content tooks time, that's why we didn't mad or sad once we reach it.
What we do after that is just asking more friend to join and play together while helping and teaching them at the same time.
Maybe it's because we play a lot of non-time-gated games, games that usually let us do whatever we want. That's why when we first play GI, we get annoyed so much because we literally can't progress unless put some cash on the resin. And that for us, is not fun. There's thing to do, but the system, restrict us.
Also, remember that the layers of GEAR RNG on ARTIFACT in this game is very heavy. Even if you we get berserker set, there's no guaranteed that the attributes will be ATK or CRIT DMG.
So, the grind itself will be very long since chasing a perfect gear is very hard.
Which means, removing the resin system will add a big chunk of hours for all of us.
I hope you guys can understand my point.
P.S. : I'm truly speechless reading reply like "cuz it's gacha." Like, why do you support such bad design. :( I guess, i found the answer for this one. And it's truly sad.
FadedFace : it's because they already bought into the system. They spent a ton into these kinds of games already, so the only way for them to not feel stupid about themselves is to convince themselves and the rest of the world that this is the correct way of doing thing. Otherwise, if the system change, their thousand of dollar sunk cost would go poof in smoke and they are left realizing that they didn't have to do any of that shit to begin with, and all they had to do was vote with their wallet, and they would have gotten the same experience for much less. Meanwhile, they keep feeding the sharks, so these companies see no reason to change the system to begin with, and the cycle continue.
The one argument I can't stand is the "well they have to make money somehow". Like the gaming industry wasn't already a billions dollar colossus before these gacha systems come into existence. There are ways that far more player friendly to make money, that have been in places way before this, but the kids somehow thought that these companies will go bankrupt if they didn't spend their retirement saving. Give me a fucking break.
P.S. : For those who say removing Resin will allow us blitz through content which is not good? Well, i found one best answer for that from :
u/julchiar Games like diablo 2, path of exile and many more literally live through this and people spend thousands of hours trying to find the perfect gear, all without artificial limits like resin.
Since other games are able to pull it off, i don't see why GI can't do the same other than trying to monetize it all, including resin. And that's greedy.
P.S. : For those who said the games still young, thus give it time. Sure, absolutely, but does not mean Criticism shouldn't exist.
I found couple of reply that serve as best answer for those statement :
Shakkyun : If people doesn't state the problems now, they'll take way too long to react tho. Epic Seven had some really bad issues, they took half a year to talk with the players and change things, and they did it when they got review bombed on the store, so better complain early than late tbh
Dutycalls406 : On a sidenote, the
taptap reviews for Genshin are not looking very well at the moment (4.7/10). Chinese players are way ahead of us in pointing out what's wrong with the game. They have been doing it since beta testing. Meanwhile the Google play store reviews are a nearly perfect score.
Shakkyun : Once again, asia is saving us by being realistic in the long run, Korean saved us on Epic Seven with their reviews and complain, while the global was just mocking them as people who complain, but once everything changed everyone was actually thankful
Dutycalls406 : I noticed this behaviour in this subreddit too. A lot of times people would tell you "stop playing if you don't like it" or "it's a gacha game what did you expect?". Instead of thinking for a moment and understand what all this means for the game in the long run.
P.S : One last note for this post, i just want to say that for those defend the stamina system : Do you guys realize that my intention is on this post, is asking for changes that will IMPROVE most player experience, not trashing the game.
Which is baffling for me to see people actually defending this predatory system.
Fun fact : Genshin Impact currently are sititng on 4.7 out of 10 in China Taptap review. https://www.taptap.com/app/168332/review?score=1 What are they complain about? The resin, the gacha, the trash chest, etc.
It seems like china players are more aware of the problem than global.
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